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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pennantpark Investment Corporation (XNYS:PNNT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PNNT
Name:
PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:PNNT)
Sector:
- 177350.49K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Arthur Penn
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION(PNNT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.35
One Month Price Target:
$6.41
Six Month Price Target :
$6.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.04
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.91
This week:
$5.37
This month :
$4.4
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
412.11M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.41M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.88%
-23.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.38
$7.45
$4.32
$5.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.95
$5.55
$5.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PNNT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.34%
Comparison:
PNNT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 66.84% higher than the industry
& is -41.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PNNT
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.08%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 41.49% above industry average
Classification:
PNNT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
PNNT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.38%
Weekly Volatility:
7.55%
Monthly Volatility:
15.10%
Yearly Volatility:
52.30%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.88%
Weekly VaR:
-15.38%
Monthly VaR:
-30.77%
How Much Can the price of
PNNT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.66
This translates to price declining to:
$0.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PNNT is a 117.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.03% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 29.92% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PNNT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.899
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.271
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.765
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.74
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.976
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.743
Beta is 119.00% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -4.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.46%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.29% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.013
Alpha is -76.73% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -83% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PNNT
Equity cost of capital:
0.143
Equity cost of capital is -3.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.13%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.13%
WACC is -10.84% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.61
Annual revenue growth rate is 123.98% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.28
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
95.74%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 244.73% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.79
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -33.30%
Equity growth rate per share is -257.59% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.44
EBITDA per share
$1.08
Valuation Analysis Today of
PNNT
P/E Ratio:
12.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
34.77
P/E ratio is -65.08% lower than main peers & is -24.83% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.67
PNNT is -69.28% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.47
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.32
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.24
Price to sales ratio is -38.11% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.61
Price to free cash flow: 8.04
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
268.89%
Net income growth rate is 84.96% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.39%
Dividend yeild: 8.27%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.53
Expected next dividend best case: $0.16
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.13
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.14
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.31%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.15
2021-12-17--$0.12
2021-06-16--$0.12
2022-03-16--$0.14
2021-09-16--$0.12
2021-03-17--$0.12
Dividend growth rate is -123.73% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
120.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
136.37%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
60.88%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 2.55% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.72
Interest coverage ratio is -95.43% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.87%
Annual debt growth is -199% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 31.42%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.484
Statistical significance of correlation:
PNNT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -16.05% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.053
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.105
Kurtosis
15.918
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.211
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PNNT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
45.44%
Operating profit margin is -3.40% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.30%
Effective tax rate is -74.20% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.64%
Return on equity (ROE) is -49.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -3.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
6.51
Current ratio is 69.64% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 689.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PNNT
APXT
WEST BANCORPORATION, INC. (XNAS:WTBA)
EQUITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EQBK)
CAPITAL CITY BANK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CCBG)
BURGUNDY TECH ACQ UNT (XNAS:BTAQU)
BURGUNDY TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:BTAQ)
GLADSTONE INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:GAIN)
DONEGAL GROUP INC. (XNAS:DGICA)
RBB BANCORP (XNAS:RBB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
97.96M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
33.40M
-
3.74M
3.74M
-
2.80M
6.54M
78.25M
26.00M
- 46768.75K
70.65M
44.51M
85.66M
91.42M
5.76M
85.66M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 46768.75K
Differed Income Tax :
5.05M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 14319.86K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
826.71M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 146817.73K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 177350.49K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 295135.73K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
39.58M
931.83M
971.41M
32.84M
-
- 27429.11K
976.81M
-
-
-
1.45B
-
-
-
540.99M
1.52B
12.65M
150.10M
-
-
- 12652.63K
150.10M
813.52M
- 5045.14K
813.52M
1.65B
840.20M
67.05K
- 109450.63K
-
109.38M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
4.45M
677.61M
1.52B
2.38B
963.62M
924.0M
132.25M
-
- 162889.72K
- 372799.09K
-
-
- 8045.41K
577.42M
196.57M
2.61K
19.22M
39.58M
20.36M
- 177350.49K
-
- 177350.49K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PNNT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.08
$37.47
$41.57
$46.11
$51.15