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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pennantpark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. (XNYS:PFLT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PFLT
Name:
PENNANTPARK FLOATING RATE CAPITAL LTD. (XNYS:PFLT)
Sector:
- 82386.48K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Arthur H. Penn
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PENNANTPARK FLOATING RATE CAPITAL LTD.(PFLT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.97
One Month Price Target:
$12.08
Six Month Price Target :
$12.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$12.04
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.24
This week:
$10.34
This month :
$8.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
555.94M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.8%
-29.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.36
$13.81
$8.58
$10.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.97
$10.63
$10.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PFLT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.10%
Comparison:
PFLT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 36.51% higher than the industry
& is -51.84% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PFLT
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.83%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.99% above industry average
Classification:
PFLT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
PFLT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.99%
Weekly Volatility:
6.69%
Monthly Volatility:
13.39%
Yearly Volatility:
46.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.90%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.11%
Weekly VaR:
-13.65%
Monthly VaR:
-27.30%
How Much Can the price of
PFLT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-94.58%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.14
This translates to price declining to:
$0.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PFLT is a 92.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.09% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 15.18% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PFLT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.863
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.22
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.699
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.584
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.8
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.8
Beta is 102.94% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -4.24% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.043
Alpha is -23.64% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -271% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PFLT
Equity cost of capital:
0.143
Equity cost of capital is -3.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.43%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.92%
WACC is -41.71% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.11
Annual revenue growth rate is -58.75% below industry average
EPS:
$1.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
58.28%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 109.85% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 2.10%
Equity growth rate per share is -90.08% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.33
EBITDA per share
$1.62
Valuation Analysis Today of
PFLT
P/E Ratio:
22.42
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.26
P/E ratio is 82.81% higher than main peers & is 38.83% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $18.57
PFLT is -35.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.77
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.66
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.92
Price to sales ratio is 59.35% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.11
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -99.91% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
67.53%
Net income growth rate is -53.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 27.42%
Dividend yeild: 3.17%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.38
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 31/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 06/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.10
2022-04-14--$0.10
2022-02-14--$0.10
2022-05-17--$0.10
2022-03-16--$0.10
2022-01-14--$0.10
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
150.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
193.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
59.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
75.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 13.43% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3
Interest coverage ratio is -94.96% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.09%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 13.87%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.436
Statistical significance of correlation:
PFLT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -24.31% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.05
Kurtosis
29.217
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.08
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PFLT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.44%
Effective tax rate is -49.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is -67.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is -45.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.5x
Current Ratio:
3.72
Current ratio is -2.93% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PFLT
CRESCENT CAPITAL BDC, INC. (XNAS:CCAP)
Pioneer Merger Corp (XNAS:PACX)
BRIDGEWATER BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BWB)
RBNC
HBT FINANCIAL, INC (XNAS:HBT)
GHVI
MIDWESTONE FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MOFG)
MARLIN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:FINM)
GUARANTY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:GNTY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
50.37M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
13.26M
-
2.30M
2.30M
-
1.94M
4.24M
74.37M
24.87M
3.50M
74.50M
-
40.39M
46.13M
5.74M
40.39M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.50M
Differed Income Tax :
1.54M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
5.28M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
740.48M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 107141.52K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 82386.48K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 335103.43K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
61.27M
945.34M
1.01B
24.17M
-
- 18429.92K
1.01B
-
-
-
1.18B
-
-
-
253.01M
1.27B
8.79M
271.86M
-
-
- 8791.30K
271.86M
750.17M
- 1539.87K
750.17M
1.52B
767.95M
39.15K
- 44915.01K
-
44.88M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
7.32M
497.41M
1.27B
2.13B
1.02B
960.8M
238.37M
-
- 96734.94K
- 120786.98K
3.52M
-
- 11077.66K
221.53M
93.19M
639.46K
11.44M
61.27M
49.83M
- 82386.48K
-
- 82386.48K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PFLT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.35
$26.71
$29.62
$32.85
$36.43