_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation (XNAS:PGC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PGC
Name:
PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PGC)
Sector:
30.92M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Douglas Kennedy
Total Employees:
497
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -534.48% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION(PGC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
33.42
One Month Price Target:
$33.62
Six Month Price Target :
$34.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.88
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$33.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.28
This week:
$28.63
This month :
$23.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
603.18M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.24%
-23.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.36
$38.79
$23.48
$28.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.33
$29.52
$30.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PGC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.78%
Comparison:
PGC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 44.64% higher than the industry
& is -22.05% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PGC
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.30%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 42.72% above industry average
Classification:
PGC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
PGC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.15%
Weekly Volatility:
7.05%
Monthly Volatility:
14.10%
Yearly Volatility:
48.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -97.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.41%
Weekly VaR:
-14.34%
Monthly VaR:
-28.68%
How Much Can the price of
PGC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.19
This translates to price declining to:
$5.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PGC is a 102.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 73.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.40% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PGC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.707
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.999
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.901
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.595
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.045
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.119
Beta is -2.14% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 13.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.85%
Sustainable growth rate is 7.84% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.049
Alpha is 324.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 313% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PGC
Equity cost of capital:
0.106
Equity cost of capital is 9.20% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.76%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.76%
WACC is -9.20% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.82
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is 19.90% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -50.08% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.66
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 2.65%
Equity growth rate per share is -93.15% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.44
EBITDA per share
$5.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
PGC
P/E Ratio:
10.11
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.64
P/E ratio is -25.85% lower than main peers & is -18.51% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $36.85
PGC is -9.32% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.43
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.88
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.83
Price to sales ratio is -33.89% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
Price to free cash flow: 9.13
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
29.40%
Net income growth rate is -46.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.62%
Dividend yeild: 0.60%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.20
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.05
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-11--$0.05
2021-11-09--$0.05
2021-05-10--$0.05
2022-02-09--$0.05
2021-08-09--$0.05
2021-02-10--$0.05
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.33%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.99
Interest coverage ratio is 501.65% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-61.93%
Annual debt growth is -19654% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.484
Statistical significance of correlation:
PGC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -3.42% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.069
Kurtosis
12.906
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.017
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PGC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.23%
Operating profit margin is -57.46% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
26.75%
Effective tax rate is 24.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 21.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.06%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
432.6K
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
201.4K
Each employee generates -11% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
114.5K
Each employee generates -19% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
62.2K
Each employee generates -25% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -25% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PGC
CF Acquisition Corp IV (XNAS:CFIV)
NEWTEK BUSINESS SERVICES CORP. (XNAS:NEWT)
Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co III (XNAS:KVSC)
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZIONP)
LUTHER BURBANK CORPORATION (XNAS:LBC)
FIRST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:THFF)
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSCBP)
CNBKA
Calamos Glbl Dyn Inc (XNAS:CHW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
215.03M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
84.93M
85.72M
790.00K
-
-
165.97M
20.08M
2.38M
100.12M
32.76M
56.89M
77.66M
20.78M
56.89M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.79M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3575.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
35.00K
Change in Working Capital :
19.23M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
30.92M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 74590.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
113.96M
601.16M
715.12M
143.14M
-
-
-
41.08M
-
-
721.98M
-
-
811.53M
7.07B
6.26B
-
122.09M
-
-
-
122.09M
153.50M
-
153.50M
5.76B
5.73B
-
-
- 40938.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
523.43M
6.26B
1.32B
275.59M
161.6M
102.22M
- 320526.00K
- 292892.00K
-
-
- 2504.00K
- 920.00K
232.55M
229.13M
-
- 32844.00K
113.96M
146.80M
30.92M
-
30.92M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PGC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.12
$44.14
$47.39
$50.87
$54.62