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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Peabody Energy Corporation (XNYS:BTU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BTU
Name:
PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:BTU)
Sector:
- 310400.00K
Industry:
Thermal Coal
CEO:
Mr. Glenn Kellow
Total Employees:
4,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION(BTU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND THERMAL COAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.73
One Month Price Target:
$24.87
Six Month Price Target :
$25.6
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.91
This week:
$16.2
This month :
$7.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
143.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.53%
-24.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.41
$34.14
$7.05
$15.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.68
$17.99
$19.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BTU
Sharpe Ratio:
5.34%
Comparison:
BTU, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 6.47% higher than the industry
& ratio is 134.45% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BTU
Daily returns:
0.42%
Weekly returns:
2.11%
Monthly returns:
8.43%
Yearly returns:
67.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 50.77% above industry average
Classification:
BTU, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
BTU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.72%
Weekly Volatility:
17.26%
Monthly Volatility:
34.51%
Yearly Volatility:
119.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
6.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -12.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-15.43%
Weekly VaR:
-34.50%
Monthly VaR:
-69.00%
How Much Can the price of
BTU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-56%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.84
This translates to price declining to:
$3.71
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BTU is a 386.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 317.19% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 45.30% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BTU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.799
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.129
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.674
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.852
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.074
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.679
Beta is -37.72% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.929
Beta is 12.57% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.908
Alpha is 57.78% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5779% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BTU
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is 8.41% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.64%
Before-tax cost of debt:
15.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
11.99%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
11.99%
WACC is 20.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.88
Annual revenue growth rate is 112.58% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.30
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 6.93% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$7.67
EBITDA per share
$5.75
Valuation Analysis Today of
BTU
P/E Ratio:
4.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.99
P/E ratio is -68.90% lower than main peers & is -26.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $15.52
BTU is 59.31% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.06
Price to sales ratio is -27.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.88
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 95.72% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-37.16%
Net income growth rate is 1.58% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.59%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.15
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
-
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/11/2019
Previous dividend record date: 30/10/2019
Previous dividend declaration date: 16/10/2019
Dividend History:
2019-10-29--$0.15
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
59.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
16.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.86
Interest coverage ratio is -4.63% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 35.22%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.247
Statistical significance of correlation:
BTU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.292
Stock price is -15.38% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.292
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.076
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.341
Kurtosis
4.271
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.922
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BTU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.98%
Operating profit margin is -20.54% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Effective Tax Rate:
7.18%
Effective tax rate is 985.64% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is -760.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is 113.13% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.21
Current ratio is 17.24% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
49.5
Cash conversion cycle is 146.37% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
685.4K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
169.0K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
65.4K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 63.3K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
640.3K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BTU
GEL
TEKMAR GROUP PLC (XLON:TGP)
ARCH RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:ARCH)
GULFPORT ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:GPOR)
NEXTIER OILFIELD SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:NEX)
YPF SA (XNYS:YPF)
OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:OII)
DELEK US HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DK)
ARCHROCK INC. (XNYS:AROC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�25%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.36B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.67B
688.90M
-
-
86.30M
-
357.10M
443.40M
5.50M
170.40M
313.30M
828.00M
402.40M
320.70M
328.90M
23.60M
320.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 6400.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 157700.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 6900.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 273700.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 29700.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 126600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
823.30M
-
823.30M
357.40M
269.10M
356.50M
1.81B
2.94B
-
-
201.20M
-
-
3.14B
-
4.94B
-
19.10M
-
-
798.20M
817.30M
1.10B
1.11B
2.23B
-
3.05B
1.90M
- 1032700.00K
286.4M
2.60B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.11B
1.85B
4.90B
-
1.12B
299.4M
-
191.50M
35.20M
- 599900.00K
222.00M
- 2000.00K
-
512.10M
132.20M
-
- 106300.00K
848.00M
954.30M
- 273700.00K
- 36700.00K
- 310400.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BTU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.60
$30.61
$32.76
$35.06
$37.53