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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pdf Solutions, Inc. (XNAS:PDFS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PDFS
Name:
PDF SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:PDFS)
Sector:
1.23M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Dr. John Kibarian
Total Employees:
407
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -102.55% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PDF SOLUTIONS, INC.(PDFS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25
One Month Price Target:
$25.21
Six Month Price Target :
$26.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.17
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.34
This week:
$21.29
This month :
$17.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
915.78M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
36.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.09%
-14.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.69
$29.13
$17.31
$20.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.97
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.21
$22.02
$22.79
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PDFS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.32%
Comparison:
PDFS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 244.57% higher than the industry
& ratio is 45.72% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PDFS
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.59%
Monthly returns:
2.36%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 185.16% above industry average
Classification:
PDFS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
PDFS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.29%
Weekly Volatility:
7.35%
Monthly Volatility:
14.71%
Yearly Volatility:
50.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.64%
Weekly VaR:
-14.84%
Monthly VaR:
-29.68%
How Much Can the price of
PDFS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.78
This translates to price declining to:
$3.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PDFS is a 109.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.52% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PDFS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.92
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.301
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.433
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.705
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.799
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.449
Beta is 1.61% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 10.23% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.151
Alpha is -739.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 961% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PDFS
Equity cost of capital:
0.132
Equity cost of capital is 7.61% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.45%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.67%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.67%
WACC is 44.59% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.33
Annual revenue growth rate is -90.17% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
50.54%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 84.77% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.30
-
-
Debt per share
$0.13
EBITDA per share
-$0.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
PDFS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
104.69
-
-
PDFS is -129.33% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.68
Price to sales ratio is -33.08% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.33
Price to free cash flow: 84.66
Price to free cash flow ratio is -4.10% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
140.69%
Net income growth rate is -42.38% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-13.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.79%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-9.73
Interest coverage ratio is -118.31% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.92%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.402
Statistical significance of correlation:
PDFS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -20.12% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.031
Kurtosis
11.903
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.112
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PDFS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
250%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-9.98%
Operating profit margin is -47.93% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
250%
Effective Tax Rate:
-23.25%
Effective tax rate is -188.13% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-8.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -35.41% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-6.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is 76.87% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.25
Current ratio is 41.83% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
85.9
Cash conversion cycle is -9.38% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-30.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
295.7K
Each employee generates -14% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 12.0K
Each employee generates -212% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 44.3K
Each employee generates 154% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.0K
Each employee generates -139% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
208.2K
Each employee generates -139% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 26.33%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1622.48% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PDFS
MAXEON SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, LTD. (XNAS:MAXN)
KOPIN CORPORATION (XNAS:KOPN)
UNIVERSAL ELECTRONICS INC. (XNAS:UEIC)
CASA SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CASA)
MITEK SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MITK)
HARMONIC INC. (XNAS:HLIT)
RIMINI STREET, INC. (XNAS:RMNI)
AMERICAN SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:AMSWA)
CLEANSPARK, INC. (XNAS:CLSK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
120.36M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
45.06M
75.30M
47.03M
-
39.03M
-
1.25M
87.31M
292.00K
504.00K
9.23M
- 4902.00K
- 12008.00K
- 18041.00K
- 14638.00K
3.40M
- 18041.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.25M
Differed Income Tax :
- 11.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.55M
Change in Working Capital :
- 853.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.30M
Other Working Capital:
- 844.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
210.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1765.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 20959.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
35.80M
98.44M
134.24M
37.75M
-
8.86M
180.85M
41.32M
14.12M
20.37M
-
67.00K
8.84M
84.73M
-
265.58M
4.05M
1.23M
-
24.11M
13.18M
42.57M
4.74M
4.70M
9.44M
-
52.01M
6.00K
- 101871.00K
- 1495.0K
316.93M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
132.37M
213.57M
265.58M
-
5.97M
- 29833.0K
35.00M
-
12.28M
-
-
- 5778.00K
-
- 1212.00K
- 6990.00K
- 167.00K
8.12M
35.80M
27.68M
3.00M
- 1765.00K
1.23M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PDFS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.61
$7.52
$8.26
$9.08
$9.98