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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pdc Energy, Inc. (XNAS:PDCE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PDCE
Name:
PDC ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PDCE)
Sector:
301.96M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Barton Brookman
Total Employees:
535
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -28.17% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PDC ENERGY, INC.(PDCE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
66.83
One Month Price Target:
$67.79
Six Month Price Target :
$72.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$78.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$66.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$67.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$59.72
This week:
$50.94
This month :
$35.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.28B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
96.31M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.76%
-48.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$99.75
$84.33
$33.91
$49.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$79.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.01
$54.31
$57.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PDCE
Sharpe Ratio:
5.54%
Comparison:
PDCE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 20.60% higher than the industry
& ratio is 143.16% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PDCE
Daily returns:
0.30%
Weekly returns:
1.52%
Monthly returns:
6.08%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.79% above industry average
Classification:
PDCE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
PDCE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.33%
Weekly Volatility:
11.91%
Monthly Volatility:
23.82%
Yearly Volatility:
82.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -15.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.63%
Weekly VaR:
-23.78%
Monthly VaR:
-47.55%
How Much Can the price of
PDCE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.07
This translates to price declining to:
$10.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PDCE is a 235.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 187.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.24% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PDCE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.56
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.579
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.233
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.934
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.085
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.134
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
24.267
Beta is -89.43% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 27.42% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.522
Alpha is 17.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3326% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PDCE
Equity cost of capital:
0.207
Equity cost of capital is 22.32% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
15.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.32%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.32%
WACC is 30.66% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$30.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.33
Annual revenue growth rate is -68.82% below industry average
EPS:
$5.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.67
-
-
Debt per share
$9.87
EBITDA per share
$12.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
PDCE
P/E Ratio:
5.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.92
P/E ratio is -46.73% lower than main peers & is -87.45% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $211.41
PDCE is -68.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.17
Price to sales ratio is -55.93% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.33
Price to free cash flow: 6.26
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
17095.33%
Net income growth rate is 2304.96% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.94%
Dividend yeild: 2.01%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.34
Expected next dividend best case: $0.70
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.00
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.29
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 99.25%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 23/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.35
2021-12-16--$0.62
2021-06-09--$0.12
2022-03-10--$0.25
2021-09-07--$0.12
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is 139.85% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
28.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.58%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -68.86% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.23
Interest coverage ratio is 104.63% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-41.06%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.449
Statistical significance of correlation:
PDCE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 13.73% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
15.063
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.755
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PDCE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.35%
Operating profit margin is -1579.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.26%
Effective tax rate is -73.42% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is 112.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.71%
Return on assets (ROA) is 278.98% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.58
Current ratio is -71.20% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-14.5
Cash conversion cycle is -120.49% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.10%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
5.5M
Each employee generates -31% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.3M
Each employee generates -5% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
933.4K
Each employee generates 123% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
564.4K
Each employee generates -712% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
9.3M
Each employee generates -712% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PDCE
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHRD)
RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:REGI)
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:WFRD)
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:ARLP)
HIGHPEAK ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:HPK)
XOG
TELLURIAN INC. (XNYS:TELL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�46%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.97B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
944.75M
2.02B
-
322.17M
322.17M
-
5.15M
327.32M
-
76.60M
639.48M
1.24B
603.72M
499.39M
527.12M
27.73M
499.39M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
3.60M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.47M
Change in Working Capital :
- 49839.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
561.77M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
489.05M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
465.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
171.16M
-
171.16M
537.06M
-
25.35M
733.56M
4.89B
-
-
-
-
111.54M
5.00B
-
5.73B
192.27M
7.57M
112.35M
-
1.08B
1.28B
950.54M
537.71M
1.69B
-
2.97B
957.00K
- 281914.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.27B
2.76B
5.73B
-
958.11M
787.0M
-
- 236999.00K
- 236534.00K
- 100919.00K
-
- 90056.00K
- 24681.00K
100.47M
- 115186.00K
-
137.33M
171.16M
33.83M
489.05M
- 187088.00K
301.96M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PDCE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$68.05
$79.78
$93.52
$109.64
$128.53