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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Paylocity Holding Corporation (XNAS:PCTY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PCTY
Name:
PAYLOCITY HOLDING CORPORATION (XNAS:PCTY)
Sector:
- 16511.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Steven Beauchamp
Total Employees:
5,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -106.83% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PAYLOCITY HOLDING CORPORATION(PCTY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
235.77
One Month Price Target:
$237.37
Six Month Price Target :
$245.35
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$254.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$234.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$237.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$220.33
This week:
$201.24
This month :
$166.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.17B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
55.28M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.73%
-15.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$307.35
$274.01
$164.19
$197.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$263.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$256.03
$208.30
$215.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PCTY
Sharpe Ratio:
4.37%
Comparison:
PCTY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 353.07% higher than the industry
& ratio is 91.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PCTY
Daily returns:
0.15%
Weekly returns:
0.76%
Monthly returns:
3.03%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 265.55% above industry average
Classification:
PCTY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.11
Statistical test of Returns:
PCTY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.26%
Weekly Volatility:
7.30%
Monthly Volatility:
14.59%
Yearly Volatility:
50.55%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.55%
Weekly VaR:
-14.65%
Monthly VaR:
-29.29%
How Much Can the price of
PCTY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$178.80
This translates to price declining to:
$35.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PCTY is a 106.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 77.13% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.22% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PCTY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.005
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.422
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.034
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.263
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.87
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.476
Beta is -18.10% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -9.48% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.79%
Sustainable growth rate is -39.60% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.249
Alpha is -1154.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1585% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PCTY
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is -7.05% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.31
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
27.87
Annual revenue growth rate is -48.27% below industry average
EPS:
$1.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.95%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -41.70% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.68
-
-
Debt per share
$1.21
EBITDA per share
$2.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
PCTY
P/E Ratio:
146.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
575.74
P/E ratio is -74.54% lower than main peers & is -17.46% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $275.28
PCTY is -14.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
16.47
Price to sales ratio is 43.61% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
27.87
Price to free cash flow: 140.05
Price to free cash flow ratio is 34.54% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
77.08%
Net income growth rate is -68.43% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.71%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-44.45%
Annual debt growth is -105% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.651
Statistical significance of correlation:
PCTY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 29.49% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0
Kurtosis
2.176
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.088
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PCTY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
263%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.46%
Operating profit margin is -149.39% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
263%
Effective Tax Rate:
-18.31%
Effective tax rate is -169.40% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is -243.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -159.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.02
Current ratio is -66.02% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-4.7
Cash conversion cycle is -104.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
22.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
149.3K
Each employee generates -57% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
22.9K
Each employee generates 113% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
16.5K
Each employee generates -195% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.1K
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
90.5K
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 22.21%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1352.77% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PCTY
KINGSOFT CLOUD HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:KC)
REPLICEL LIFE SCIENCES INC. (XTSX:RP)
SUNRUN INC. (XNAS:RUN)
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
PEGASYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:PEGA)
MCAFEE CORP. (XNAS:MCFE)
MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:MANH)
PFPT
DROPBOX, INC. (XNAS:DBX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�25%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
791.16M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
268.66M
522.50M
94.29M
152.18M
353.34M
201.16M
-
447.63M
-
-
47.32M
121.29M
74.87M
87.51M
73.97M
- 13542.00K
87.51M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.32M
Differed Income Tax :
- 20827.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
19.56M
Change in Working Capital :
- 45317.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 173.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 11114.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
199.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4132.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3220.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 59581.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 135849.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
66.43M
3.15M
69.58M
8.09M
-
3.25B
3.33B
106.51M
68.02M
85.89M
-
32.60M
186.48M
479.51M
-
3.81B
6.91M
7.73M
-
10.17M
3.25B
3.27B
66.68M
1.91M
70.52M
-
3.34B
55.00K
266.02M
- 9.0K
201.50M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
716.29M
467.57M
3.81B
-
74.41M
8.0M
9.65M
- 9159.00K
- 198161.00K
-
-
-
-
1.36B
1.36B
-
1.16B
3.11B
1.95B
- 4132.00K
- 12379.00K
- 16511.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PCTY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$256.19
$523.18
$565.68
$611.64
$661.33