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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Patterson-Uti Energy, Inc. (XNAS:PTEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PTEN
Name:
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:PTEN)
Sector:
- 61154.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas Drilling
CEO:
Mr. William Hendricks
Total Employees:
5,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY, INC.(PTEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS DRILLING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.34
One Month Price Target:
$15.53
Six Month Price Target :
$16.5
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.64
This week:
$11.54
This month :
$7.74
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
216.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.66%
-44.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.22
$19.56
$7.46
$11.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.59
$12.30
$13.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PTEN
Sharpe Ratio:
3.79%
Comparison:
PTEN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.00% lower than the industry
& ratio is 66.47% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PTEN
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.09%
Monthly returns:
4.35%
Yearly returns:
52.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.00% below industry average
Classification:
PTEN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
PTEN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.50%
Weekly Volatility:
12.30%
Monthly Volatility:
24.60%
Yearly Volatility:
85.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 5.71% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.08%
Weekly VaR:
-24.77%
Monthly VaR:
-49.55%
How Much Can the price of
PTEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.00
This translates to price declining to:
$2.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PTEN is a 249.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 199.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PTEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.139
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.611
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.481
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.809
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.039
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
28.181
Beta is -92.04% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.244
Beta is 0.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.337
Alpha is 0.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2145% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PTEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.185
Equity cost of capital is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.83%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.83%
WACC is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.11
FALSE
EPS:
-$2.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Oil & Gas Drilling industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -40.67%
Equity growth rate per share is 0.00% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$4.02
EBITDA per share
$1.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
PTEN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.46
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $9.42
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.93
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.05
Price to sales ratio is 11.75% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.11
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
136.82%
Net income growth rate is 0.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -1.49%
Dividend yeild: 0.78%
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.04
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.05
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 31/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/02/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-01--$0.04
2021-12-01--$0.02
2021-06-02--$0.02
2022-03-02--$0.04
2021-09-01--$0.02
2021-03-03--$0.02
Dividend growth rate is -128.96% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
52.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.6
Interest coverage ratio is -64.24% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.43%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.364
Statistical significance of correlation:
PTEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.364
Stock price is 0.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.364
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.119
Kurtosis
8.454
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.427
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PTEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-117%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-35.63%
Operating profit margin is -0.83% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-117%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.58%
Effective tax rate is -60.36% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-36.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is 70.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-19.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 50.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.35
Current ratio is -16.14% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
38.3
Cash conversion cycle is -37.11% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
325.1K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
47.6K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 115.4K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 12.2K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
471.2K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PTEN
VIPER ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:VNOM)
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:WFRD)
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:ARLP)
HIGHPEAK ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:HPK)
XOG
CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHRD)
TELLURIAN INC. (XNYS:TELL)
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP. (XNAS:CLNE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�50%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.10B
- 470116.00K
-
-
97.29M
-
- 720.00K
96.57M
98.00K
42.53M
813.23M
238.06M
- 579104.00K
- 576909.00K
- 620247.00K
- 40804.00K
- 576909.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
116.94M
Differed Income Tax :
404.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.64M
Change in Working Capital :
- 58744.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 21252.00K
Other Working Capital:
442.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 789.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
33.67M
Investments in PP&E:
- 94828.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
48.26M
-
48.26M
377.64M
45.30M
61.70M
532.91M
2.33B
-
7.34M
-
3.81M
12.78M
2.36B
-
2.89B
206.80M
6.43M
13.23M
13.37M
169.59M
396.18M
870.81M
16.04M
916.09M
-
1.31B
2.99M
- 235848.00K
6.0M
1.80B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.19B
1.58B
2.89B
-
877.24M
829.0M
-
1.46M
- 93368.00K
-
-
- 13.00K
- 8611.00K
-
- 8624.00K
- 942.00K
- 69260.00K
48.26M
117.52M
33.67M
- 94828.00K
- 61154.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PTEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.71
$20.38
$23.45
$26.99
$31.06