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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Patterson Companies, Inc. (XNAS:PDCO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PDCO
Name:
Patterson Companies, Inc. (XNAS:PDCO)
Sector:
- 321138.00K
Industry:
Medical Distribution
CEO:
Mr. Mark Walchirk
Total Employees:
7,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PATTERSON COMPANIES, INC.(PDCO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.35
One Month Price Target:
$25.53
Six Month Price Target :
$26.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.93
This week:
$22.18
This month :
$19.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.45B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
96.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.31%
-19.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.93
$28.91
$18.77
$21.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.28
$22.77
$23.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PDCO
Sharpe Ratio:
1.65%
Comparison:
PDCO, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 31.85% higher than the industry
& is -27.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PDCO
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.09%
Yearly returns:
9.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 33.63% above industry average
Classification:
PDCO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
PDCO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.75%
Weekly Volatility:
6.15%
Monthly Volatility:
12.30%
Yearly Volatility:
42.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -13.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.60%
Weekly VaR:
-12.51%
Monthly VaR:
-25.03%
How Much Can the price of
PDCO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-86.70%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.90
This translates to price declining to:
$3.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PDCO is a 76.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 51.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.90% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PDCO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.939
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.328
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.889
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.67
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.685
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.199
Beta is 4.99% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.012
Beta is 24.38% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.03%
Sustainable growth rate is -50.88% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.013
Alpha is -501.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 81% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PDCO
Equity cost of capital:
0.118
Equity cost of capital is 16.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.32%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.25%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.25%
WACC is 11.13% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$67.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.5
Annual revenue growth rate is 32.45% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
23.86%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 116.38% higher than the Medical Distribution industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -26.69%
Equity growth rate per share is 100.00% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$5.54
EBITDA per share
$3.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
PDCO
P/E Ratio:
12.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.19
P/E ratio is -36.22% lower than main peers & is -28.74% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.23
PDCO is -31.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $21.66
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.84
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.38
Price to sales ratio is -45.57% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.5
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-24.93%
Net income growth rate is -1554.42% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.37%
Dividend yeild: 4.10%
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.26
Previous Dividend: $1.04
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-21--$0.26
2021-10-21--$0.26
2021-04-15--$0.26
2022-01-20--$0.26
2021-07-22--$0.26
2021-01-14--$0.26
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
54.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
58.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.38
Interest coverage ratio is -59.95% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
13.21%
Annual debt growth is -24% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.517
Statistical significance of correlation:
PDCO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.504
Stock price is 2.70% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.504
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.017
Kurtosis
7.171
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.249
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PDCO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
79%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.42%
Operating profit margin is -36.66% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
79%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.24%
Effective tax rate is 7.31% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.75%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.62% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 14.10% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.51
Current ratio is -5.93% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-8.8
Cash conversion cycle is -118.62% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
844.1K
Each employee generates 18% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
43.1K
Each employee generates -8% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
26.4K
Each employee generates -6% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 41.7K
Each employee generates 118% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
148.0K
Each employee generates 118% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PDCO
KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KYMR)
Relay Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:RLAY)
ATRICURE, INC. (XNAS:ATRC)
1LIFE HEALTHCARE, INC (XNAS:ONEM)
ADAPTHEALTH CORP. (XNAS:AHCO)
SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SWTX)
CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:CYTK)
DRNA
IRHYTHM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:IRTC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
6.50B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.21B
1.29B
-
-
-
-
1.13B
1.13B
-
20.29M
44.18M
332.22M
157.00M
203.21M
266.25M
64.54M
203.21M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.52M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 291138.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 38423.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 76797.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 313421.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 7717.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 19793.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/31/21
2022
Q1
136.93M
-
136.93M
373.53M
770.37M
330.66M
1.61B
294.71M
140.99M
284.39M
140.19M
-
279.09M
1.14B
-
2.75B
593.09M
175.14M
-
-
299.66M
1.07B
536.54M
165.82M
702.36M
-
1.77B
972.00K
864.20M
- 62007.0K
176.18M
July 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
6.34B
979.34M
2.75B
-
711.68M
574.7M
57.25M
315.22M
344.95M
-
-
-
- 25138.00K
- 12897.00K
- 38035.00K
190.00K
- 6314.00K
136.93M
143.24M
- 313421.00K
- 7717.00K
- 321138.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PDCO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.63
$41.51
$45.02
$48.83
$52.96