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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Patrick Industries, Inc. (XNAS:PATK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PATK
Name:
PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:PATK)
Sector:
- 41707.00K
Industry:
Recreational Vehicles
CEO:
Mr. Andrew Nemeth
Total Employees:
11,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 12.55% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PATRICK INDUSTRIES, INC.(PATK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.07
One Month Price Target:
$51.62
Six Month Price Target :
$54.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$57.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$50.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.46
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$46.86
This week:
$41.66
This month :
$32.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.9%
-35.7%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.59
$61.63
$31.55
$40.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.79
$43.41
$45.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PATK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.75%
Comparison:
PATK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -26.99% lower than the industry
& is -23.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PATK
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.59%
Yearly returns:
23.23%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17.67% below industry average
Classification:
PATK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
PATK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.05%
Weekly Volatility:
9.06%
Monthly Volatility:
18.11%
Yearly Volatility:
62.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.24%
Weekly VaR:
-18.42%
Monthly VaR:
-36.84%
How Much Can the price of
PATK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.90
This translates to price declining to:
$7.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PATK is a 160.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 122.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.66% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PATK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.159
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.639
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.766
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.237
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.259
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.473
Beta is 31.63% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.654
Beta is 17.23% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
29.39%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.40% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.027
Alpha is -69.23% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 171% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PATK
Equity cost of capital:
0.164
Equity cost of capital is 13.48% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.91%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.91%
WACC is -9.69% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$199.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.46
Annual revenue growth rate is 52.71% above the industry average
EPS:
$12.12
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
35.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -4.86% lower than the Recreational Vehicles industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.75
-
-
Debt per share
$70.87
EBITDA per share
$24.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
PATK
P/E Ratio:
3.53
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.73
P/E ratio is -86.26% lower than main peers & is -70.61% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $145.76
PATK is -64.96% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.19
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.26
Price to sales ratio is -78.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.46
Price to free cash flow: 10.76
Price to free cash flow ratio is -14.93% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
97.62%
Net income growth rate is -88.19% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.86%
Dividend yeild: 2.49%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $1.27
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.99%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/10/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/12/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.33
2021-11-26--$0.33
2021-05-28--$0.28
2022-03-04--$0.33
2021-08-27--$0.28
2021-03-05--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -116.58% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
202.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
200.86%
Debt to assets ratio:
54.53%
Net debt to assets ratio:
54.08%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -12.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.05
Interest coverage ratio is -63.66% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
76.80%
Annual debt growth is 244% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.46%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.63
Statistical significance of correlation:
PATK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.579
Stock price is 8.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.579
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.048
Kurtosis
16.16
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.382
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PATK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.74%
Operating profit margin is 12.66% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.34%
Effective tax rate is 17.81% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
36.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is -13.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
2.37
Current ratio is 10.34% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
9.6
Cash conversion cycle is -64.08% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
415.4K
Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
50.7K
Each employee generates -31% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
26.4K
Each employee generates -43% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.8K
Each employee generates -10% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
163.4K
Each employee generates -10% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PATK
SUN COUNTRY AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SNCY)
ARCBEST CORPORATION (XNAS:ARCB)
VERRA MOBILITY CORPORATION (XNAS:VRRM)
Central North Airport Group (XNAS:OMAB)
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HYFM)
HWCPL
ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:AAWW)
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
4.57B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.63B
935.01M
-
312.01M
422.38M
34.82M
67.64M
490.02M
-
61.60M
112.49M
557.47M
444.99M
290.08M
383.39M
93.31M
290.08M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.20M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.11M
Change in Working Capital :
- 167669.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3355.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 23039.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 131597.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
63.85M
-
63.85M
354.49M
698.71M
57.36M
1.17B
498.88M
600.12M
690.61M
-
-
7.37M
1.80B
-
2.97B
240.69M
50.34M
-
-
205.28M
496.32M
1.62B
14.22M
1.68B
-
2.17B
188.43M
612.98M
- 1442.0K
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.12B
799.97M
2.97B
-
1.67B
1.6B
-
- 11522.00K
- 143119.00K
- 149712.00K
-
- 24778.00K
- 8288.00K
289.93M
107.16M
-
- 59003.00K
63.85M
122.85M
- 23039.00K
- 18668.00K
- 41707.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PATK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.01
$176.46
$199.45
$225.44
$254.81