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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pathward Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CASH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CASH
Name:
Pathward Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CASH)
Sector:
49.69M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Bradley Hanson
Total Employees:
1,121
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1692.62% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PATHWARD FINANCIAL, INC.(CASH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.69
One Month Price Target:
$32.85
Six Month Price Target :
$33.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.27
This week:
$27.27
This month :
$21.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
934.94M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
29.05M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.41%
-21.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.93
$38.78
$21.45
$26.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.10
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.00
$28.26
$29.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CASH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.33%
Comparison:
CASH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 8.26% higher than the industry
& is -41.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CASH
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.14%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 25.84% above industry average
Classification:
CASH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.17
Statistical test of Returns:
CASH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.64%
Weekly Volatility:
8.13%
Monthly Volatility:
16.26%
Yearly Volatility:
56.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.56%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.41%
Weekly VaR:
-16.57%
Monthly VaR:
-33.14%
How Much Can the price of
CASH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.32
This translates to price declining to:
$4.90
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CASH is a 133.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 100.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 27.30% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CASH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.85
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.638
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.902
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.779
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.666
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.965
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.774
Beta is 10.27% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -11.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.84%
Sustainable growth rate is 117.37% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is 307.72% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 301% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CASH
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -7.70% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.75%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.75%
WACC is -22.11% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.56
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is 166.74% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
30.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 154.09% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$14.78
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.09%
Equity growth rate per share is -79.11% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.18
EBITDA per share
$8.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
CASH
P/E Ratio:
6.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.67
P/E ratio is -61.48% lower than main peers & is -51.35% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $66.51
CASH is -50.85% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.47
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.22
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.86
Price to sales ratio is -56.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
Price to free cash flow: 2.21
Price to free cash flow ratio is -82.11% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
165.94%
Net income growth rate is 201.31% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.92%
Dividend yeild: 0.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.20
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.05
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.05
2021-12-08--$0.05
2021-06-09--$0.05
2022-03-09--$0.05
2021-09-08--$0.05
2021-03-09--$0.05
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.18%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-137.83%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.27% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
46.09
Interest coverage ratio is 5461.26% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.49%
Annual debt growth is -1833% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.432
Statistical significance of correlation:
CASH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -13.69% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
17.099
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.697
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CASH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
14.42%
Effective tax rate is -33.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.01%
Return on equity (ROE) is 67.73% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is -5.81% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.08%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
455.1K
Each employee generates 20% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
228.3K
Each employee generates 1% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
147.3K
Each employee generates 4% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
44.3K
Each employee generates -47% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.2M
Each employee generates -47% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CASH
ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP (XNAS:EFSC)
LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:LKFN)
LEXINFINTECH HOLDINGS LTD. (XNAS:LX)
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION (XNAS:WABC)
PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PLMR)
EAGLE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EGBN)
VERITEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VBTX)
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:DCOM)
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:NWBI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
510.17M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
158.10M
158.10M
-
-
-
300.11M
5.55M
56.86M
255.91M
-
165.18M
196.30M
28.31M
165.18M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.32M
Differed Income Tax :
8.02M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.43M
Change in Working Capital :
- 70469.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 987.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 610.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
139.51M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
157.13M
Investments in PP&E:
- 107433.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 20894.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
1.23B
1.78B
3.01B
255.70M
-
1.89B
5.16B
278.82M
309.51M
31.66M
1.83B
-
-
2.45B
10.06B
7.61B
-
-
-
-
-
-
92.27M
-
92.27M
6.88B
6.78B
301.00K
217.99M
724.0K
606.50M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
-
825.52M
7.61B
3.62B
92.27M
- 1137826.0K
96.91M
- 116096.00K
- 147517.00K
- 7.00K
-
- 104458.00K
- 1521.00K
1.01B
906.41M
66.00K
916.08M
1.23B
314.02M
157.13M
- 107433.00K
49.69M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CASH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.74
$63.00
$66.61
$70.44
$74.48