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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Park National Corporation (XNYS:PRK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PRK
Name:
PARK NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:PRK)
Sector:
26.22M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. David Trautman
Total Employees:
1,685
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 390.75% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PARK NATIONAL CORPORATION(PRK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
131.69
One Month Price Target:
$132.23
Six Month Price Target :
$134.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$138.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$131.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$132.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$124.62
This week:
$115.89
This month :
$100.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.11B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.25M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.33%
-9.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$164.47
$149.36
$98.91
$114.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$144.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$141.21
$118.90
$122.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PRK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.37%
Comparison:
PRK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 93.22% higher than the industry
& ratio is 4.14% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PRK
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.36%
Monthly returns:
1.43%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 57.70% above industry average
Classification:
PRK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
PRK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.65%
Weekly Volatility:
5.92%
Monthly Volatility:
11.84%
Yearly Volatility:
41.02%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.37%
Weekly VaR:
-12.00%
Monthly VaR:
-24.00%
How Much Can the price of
PRK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-83.13%
This translates to price declining to:
$104.83
This translates to price declining to:
$22.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PRK is a 69.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 45.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.31% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PRK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.74
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.587
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.83
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.638
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.584
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.719
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.884
Beta is -16.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -23.62% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.37%
Sustainable growth rate is 2.59% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.090
Alpha is 677.04% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 574% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PRK
Equity cost of capital:
0.082
Equity cost of capital is -15.99% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.67%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.90%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.90%
WACC is -30.66% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.99
Annual revenue growth rate is -37.00% below industry average
EPS:
$9.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 18.55% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.88
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 11.96%
Equity growth rate per share is -69.12% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.42
EBITDA per share
$13.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
PRK
P/E Ratio:
14.85
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.3
P/E ratio is 20.70% higher than main peers & is 19.66% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $113.54
PRK is 15.99% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.71
Price to sales ratio is 10.16% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.99
Price to free cash flow: 16.71
Price to free cash flow ratio is -37.96% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
32.41%
Net income growth rate is -41.16% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.41%
Dividend yeild: 3.14%
Previous Dividend: $1.04
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.04
Previous Dividend: $4.14
Expected next dividend best case: $1.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.76
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.88
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 66.54%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$1.04
2021-11-18--$0.20
2021-05-20--$1.03
2022-02-17--$1.04
2021-08-19--$1.03
2021-02-18--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is 182.47% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
18.76%
Net debt to equity ratio:
14.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.68%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.12
Interest coverage ratio is 1603.47% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
63.40%
Annual debt growth is 19918% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 14.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.525
Statistical significance of correlation:
PRK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 4.81% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
12.38
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.425
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PRK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.04%
Effective tax rate is -16.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is 16.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is -32.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.32%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
269.6K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
125.5K
Each employee generates -44% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
89.0K
Each employee generates -37% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.6K
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PRK
Reaves Utility Income (XNYS:UTG)
Eaton Vance Ltd Dur Inc (XNYS:EVV)
TOMPKINS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:TMP)
Central Securities Corp (XNYS:CET)
Eaton Vance Muni Bd (XNYS:EIM)
Cornerstone Strat Value (XNYS:CLM)
GAMCO Gl Gld NR & Inc (XNYS:GGN)
Invesco Adv Muni II (XNYS:VKI)
Allspring Income Oppty (XNYS:EAD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
454.36M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
114.01M
-
207.38M
213.28M
5.90M
-
-
341.83M
14.98M
13.53M
211.51M
-
149.99M
183.00M
33.01M
149.99M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.48M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.98M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8395.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 7601.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
28.34M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2127.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 137613.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
246.89M
1.76B
2.00B
42.43M
-
-
-
100.22M
159.60M
22.76M
1.89B
-
-
2.17B
11.75B
9.58B
1.15M
205.93M
-
-
-
207.07M
201.89M
-
201.89M
8.49B
8.50B
459.27M
797.03M
- 40469.0K
- 139469.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.08B
9.58B
3.65B
407.82M
160.9M
54.39M
45.35M
- 40004.00K
- 32859.00K
-
-
- 17109.00K
89.34M
39.37M
-
27.71M
246.89M
219.18M
28.34M
- 2127.00K
26.22M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PRK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$157.33
$165.11
$173.28
$181.85
$190.84