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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (XNYS:PK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PK
Name:
PARK HOTELS & RESORTS INC. (XNYS:PK)
Sector:
23.00M
Industry:
REIT�Hotel & Motel
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Baltimore
Total Employees:
80
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PARK HOTELS & RESORTS INC.(PK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HOTEL & MOTEL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.94
One Month Price Target:
$14.09
Six Month Price Target :
$14.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.64
This week:
$11.04
This month :
$8.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
224.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
40.29%
-27.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.96
$17.22
$7.92
$10.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.74
$11.55
$12.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PK
Sharpe Ratio:
0.26%
Comparison:
PK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 91.01% higher than the industry
& is -88.45% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PK
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.42%
Yearly returns:
1.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 176.33% above industry average
Classification:
PK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
PK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.54%
Weekly Volatility:
10.15%
Monthly Volatility:
20.31%
Yearly Volatility:
70.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.31%
Weekly VaR:
-20.81%
Monthly VaR:
-41.62%
How Much Can the price of
PK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.84
This translates to price declining to:
$2.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PK is a 193.72% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 151.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.20% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.133
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.602
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.918
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.186
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.165
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.999
Beta is 96.77% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.76
Beta is 11.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.116
Alpha is -13.29% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -739% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PK
Equity cost of capital:
0.166
Equity cost of capital is 9.24% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.13%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.13%
WACC is 26.46% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.73
Annual revenue growth rate is 24.64% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 0.64% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$21.89
EBITDA per share
$0.93
Valuation Analysis Today of
PK
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.14
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $2.36
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.87
Price to sales ratio is -36.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.73
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-183.65%
Net income growth rate is -18.65% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 7.32%
Previous Dividend: $0.01
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.01
Previous Dividend: $1.02
Expected next dividend best case: $0.66
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.64
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -38.65%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.01
2020-03-30--$0.45
--$0.00
2022-03-30--$0.01
2019-12-30--$0.55
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -60.42% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
113.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
98.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -16.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.81
Interest coverage ratio is -142.90% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-52.16%
Annual debt growth is 305% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.574
Statistical significance of correlation:
PK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 3.27% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.1
Kurtosis
14.88
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.836
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
96%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.28%
Operating profit margin is -91.34% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
96%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.32%
Effective tax rate is -102.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.52%
Return on equity (ROE) is -49.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -30.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
2.81
Current ratio is 107.79% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.7
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
21.0M
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.6M
Each employee generates -43% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 4075.0K
Each employee generates 233% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
287.5K
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
110.3M
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PK
HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED (XNYS:HR)
KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST (XNYS:KRG)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD PLC (XNYS:CWK)
QTS-PB
PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC. (XNYS:PSB)
AGREE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:ADC)
EQC-PD
DIGITALBRIDGE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:DBRG)
NREF-PA
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�25%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.27B
405.00M
-
112.00M
112.00M
-
334.00M
446.00M
1.00M
257.00M
276.00M
208.00M
- 55000.00K
- 326000.00K
- 316000.00K
1.00M
- 326000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
69.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.00M
Change in Working Capital :
25.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
44.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
639.00M
-
639.00M
106.00M
-
136.00M
881.00M
8.70B
-
-
16.00M
-
65.00M
8.82B
-
9.70B
200.00M
-
-
-
113.00M
313.00M
4.92B
184.00M
5.11B
-
5.42B
2.00M
- 142000.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.72B
4.33B
9.75B
-
4.92B
4.3B
-
- 21000.00K
- 21000.00K
- 2000.00K
-
- 61000.00K
-
- 6000.00K
- 69000.00K
-
- 46000.00K
717.00M
763.00M
44.00M
- 21000.00K
23.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.86
$4.47
$5.06
$5.73
$6.48