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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Papa John'S International, Inc. (XNAS:PZZA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PZZA
Name:
PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:PZZA)
Sector:
15.16M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Robert Lynch
Total Employees:
14,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -351.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL, INC.(PZZA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
79.27
One Month Price Target:
$79.76
Six Month Price Target :
$82.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$85.14
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$74.42
This week:
$68.43
This month :
$57.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.82B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.35M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.76%
-21.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$101.75
$91.39
$56.79
$67.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.80
$70.50
$72.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PZZA
Sharpe Ratio:
2.44%
Comparison:
PZZA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 48.31% higher than the industry
& ratio is 7.25% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PZZA
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.65%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 23.81% above industry average
Classification:
PZZA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
PZZA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.02%
Weekly Volatility:
6.75%
Monthly Volatility:
13.49%
Yearly Volatility:
46.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -8.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.11%
Weekly VaR:
-13.67%
Monthly VaR:
-27.35%
How Much Can the price of
PZZA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-94.73%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.85
This translates to price declining to:
$4.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PZZA is a 93.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.60% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PZZA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.811
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.147
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.67
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.741
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.539
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.191
Beta is -7.42% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is -18.54% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.091
Alpha is 154.02% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 581% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PZZA
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is -13.84% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-6.51%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.10%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.10%
WACC is -12.25% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$59.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-13.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -28.41% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.29
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 47.82%
Equity growth rate per share is -594.38% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$20.04
EBITDA per share
$5.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
PZZA
P/E Ratio:
32.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
40.05
P/E ratio is -18.81% lower than main peers & is 37.44% higher than the industry
-
PZZA is -709.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $48.20
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $28.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.34
Price to sales ratio is -59.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-13.79
Price to free cash flow: 34.55
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
4345.90%
Net income growth rate is 2396.30% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.45%
Dividend yeild: 1.77%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.40
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.35
2021-11-08--$0.35
2021-05-10--$0.23
2022-02-04--$0.35
2021-08-13--$0.35
2021-02-05--$0.23
Dividend growth rate is -344.25% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-316.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-291.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
80.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
73.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -49.24% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.78
Interest coverage ratio is -44.66% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
33.48%
Annual debt growth is -10% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.372
Statistical significance of correlation:
PZZA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -28.03% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.062
Kurtosis
43.97
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.404
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PZZA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.87%
Operating profit margin is -26.95% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.35%
Effective tax rate is -5.88% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-45.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is -14218.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is -19.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
5.0x
Current Ratio:
1.03
Current ratio is -8.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8.2
Cash conversion cycle is -75.23% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.12%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
149.9K
Each employee generates 34% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
13.6K
Each employee generates -47% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
7.2K
Each employee generates -49% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.1K
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
42.8K
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PZZA
MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED (XNAS:MLCO)
SILGAN HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:SLGN)
WINGSTOP INC. (XNAS:WING)
NIKOLA CORPORATION (XNAS:NKLA)
Diversey Holdings, Ltd. (XNAS:DSEY)
LESLIE'S, INC. (XNAS:LESL)
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DRVN)
THE WENDY'S COMPANY (XNAS:WEN)
TRIPADVISOR, INC. (XNAS:TRIP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
2.10B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.61B
484.48M
-
193.56M
193.56M
-
105.09M
298.64M
-
19.49M
49.28M
190.70M
144.10M
101.25M
126.52M
20.68M
101.25M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.94M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1817.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.18M
Change in Working Capital :
- 24524.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2503.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2119.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
24.19M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
25.39M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10233.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1250.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
80.67M
-
80.67M
100.87M
38.99M
65.73M
286.27M
414.18M
71.59M
-
-
6.54M
107.05M
599.36M
-
885.63M
35.43M
26.13M
27.97M
19.65M
197.42M
278.63M
708.52M
89.21M
810.11M
-
1.09B
491.00K
181.12M
- 9316.0K
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.91B
- 224079.00K
864.67M
-
734.65M
654.0M
-
3.17M
- 8315.00K
-
-
- 32709.00K
- 12608.00K
38.53M
- 6787.00K
- 233.00K
10.06M
80.67M
70.61M
25.39M
- 10233.00K
15.16M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PZZA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$85.57
$91.91
$98.72
$106.03
$113.89