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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Palomar Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:PLMR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLMR
Name:
PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PLMR)
Sector:
47.78M
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Mr. D. McDonald Armstrong
Total Employees:
151
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2308.15% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC.(PLMR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
83.93
One Month Price Target:
$83.94
Six Month Price Target :
$83.96
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$83.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$83.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$84.53
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$78.04
This week:
$70.76
This month :
$57.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
25.25M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.12%
-19.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$111.25
$98.60
$56.61
$69.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$94.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$91.78
$73.35
$76.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLMR
Sharpe Ratio:
3.32%
Comparison:
PLMR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 139.97% higher than the industry
& ratio is 45.56% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLMR
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.62%
Monthly returns:
2.49%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 186.06% above industry average
Classification:
PLMR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
PLMR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.48%
Weekly Volatility:
7.78%
Monthly Volatility:
15.56%
Yearly Volatility:
53.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.71%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.02%
Weekly VaR:
-15.70%
Monthly VaR:
-31.40%
How Much Can the price of
PLMR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$61.83
This translates to price declining to:
$12.59
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLMR is a 121.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 89.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 44.48% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLMR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.464
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.656
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.006
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.651
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.807
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.688
Beta is -98.33% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is -97.93% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.32%
Sustainable growth rate is -36.46% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.266
Alpha is 665.70% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1693% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLMR
Equity cost of capital:
0.032
Equity cost of capital is -53.56% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.89%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.70%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.70%
WACC is -51.71% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.57
Annual revenue growth rate is 127.94% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
53.15%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 240.24% higher than the Insurance�Property & Casualty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.64
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$2.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLMR
P/E Ratio:
47.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.78
P/E ratio is 165.86% higher than main peers & is 170.11% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $29.39
PLMR is 185.53% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.66
Price to sales ratio is 219.31% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.57
Price to free cash flow: 14.89
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
123.63%
Net income growth rate is -523.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
132.10%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-8.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
56.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
422.93
Interest coverage ratio is 8682.84% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.352
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLMR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is -41.41% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.105
Kurtosis
2.579
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.203
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLMR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
Operating profit margin is -100.05% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.03%
Effective tax rate is 10.23% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.50%
Return on equity (ROE) is 41.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is 198.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.3x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 53% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
372.5K
Each employee generates 85% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
289.8K
Each employee generates 105% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
316.4K
Each employee generates 423% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.3M
Each employee generates 423% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLMR
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION (XNAS:WABC)
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
EAGLE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EGBN)
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:NWBI)
PRA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PRAA)
EHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:EHTH)
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CFFN)
LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:LKFN)
Pathward Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CASH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
276.66M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.96M
133.00K
-
56.25M
-
43.76M
56.12M
12.36M
43.76M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
47.80M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 83923.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
46.88M
444.32M
491.20M
240.42M
-
-
-
483.00K
-
9.20M
486.30M
-
-
495.99M
1.45B
957.43M
73.88M
15.00M
-
-
-
88.88M
-
-
-
488.15M
577.03M
3.00K
71.50M
- 13151.0K
322.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
220.54M
380.40M
957.43M
930.62M
15.00M
- 31876.0K
38.16M
- 7859.00K
- 53630.00K
-
-
- 12989.00K
-
15.39M
2.40M
-
- 3432.00K
46.94M
50.37M
47.80M
- 22.00K
47.78M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLMR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$94.33
$94.40
$94.47
$94.55
$94.62