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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pacira Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:PCRX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PCRX
Name:
PACIRA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:PCRX)
Sector:
23.11M
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. David Stack
Total Employees:
697
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -39.70% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PACIRA BIOSCIENCES, INC.(PCRX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.7
One Month Price Target:
$51.95
Six Month Price Target :
$53.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.84
This week:
$45.3
This month :
$38.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.99%
-14.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.98
$58.88
$38.42
$44.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$56.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.59
$46.49
$47.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PCRX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.71%
Comparison:
PCRX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 87.94% higher than the industry
& is -24.86% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PCRX
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.11%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -6.21% below industry average
Classification:
PCRX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.14
Statistical test of Returns:
PCRX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.72%
Weekly Volatility:
6.09%
Monthly Volatility:
12.18%
Yearly Volatility:
42.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.54%
Weekly VaR:
-12.38%
Monthly VaR:
-24.76%
How Much Can the price of
PCRX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-85.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$40.71
This translates to price declining to:
$7.35
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PCRX is a 74.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 49.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.57% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PCRX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.602
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.852
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.464
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.504
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.675
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.103
Beta is -22.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is -18.63% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -71.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.043
Alpha is 12.06% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 273% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PCRX
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -12.97% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.50%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.50%
WACC is -26.93% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.34
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.06% below industry average
EPS:
$0.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.33
-
-
Debt per share
$17.45
EBITDA per share
$2.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
PCRX
P/E Ratio:
64.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
579.78
P/E ratio is -88.84% lower than main peers & is 61.88% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.57
PCRX is 54.02% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.08
Price to sales ratio is -42.35% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.34
Price to free cash flow: 22.14
Price to free cash flow ratio is 12.60% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-8298.53%
Net income growth rate is 1414.67% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
112.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
109.14%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -17.99% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.98
Interest coverage ratio is -42.68% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 19.42%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.381
Statistical significance of correlation:
PCRX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -6.59% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.022
Kurtosis
6.241
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.189
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PCRX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.14%
Operating profit margin is -145.02% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.59%
Effective tax rate is 88.88% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is -154.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.03%
Return on assets (ROA) is -154.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
2.19
Current ratio is -33.64% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
100.7
Cash conversion cycle is -33.43% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
29.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
832.9K
Each employee generates -1% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
181.4K
Each employee generates 92% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
55.1K
Each employee generates -46% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
33.2K
Each employee generates -158% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -158% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -6.52%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -199.37% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PCRX
RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RXRX)
PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTCT)
NUVASIVE, INC. (XNAS:NUVA)
CHEMOCENTRYX, INC. (XNAS:CCXI)
IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:IOVA)
Tinkoff Nasdaq Biotekh BPIFRFI (MISX:TBIO)
AXONICS, INC. (XNAS:AXNX)
ATRICURE, INC. (XNAS:ATRC)
TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TGTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�29%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
580.50M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
144.98M
435.52M
61.27M
92.72M
215.08M
122.36M
25.91M
302.26M
752.00K
31.74M
43.73M
126.45M
87.88M
38.44M
50.98M
12.54M
38.44M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.03M
Differed Income Tax :
29.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.19M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8143.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.22M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
841.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
30.78M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7668.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 12750.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 155601.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
226.75M
225.44M
452.19M
92.10M
103.66M
19.06M
667.02M
264.04M
145.72M
609.65M
35.77M
169.28M
-
1.22B
-
1.89B
14.84M
201.70M
863.00K
-
88.53M
305.07M
799.45M
67.25M
876.83M
-
1.18B
45.00K
- 157832.00K
- 527.0K
867.89M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
447.24M
709.58M
1.89B
261.21M
1.00B
774.4M
-
- 32000.00K
- 208019.00K
- 192609.00K
-
-
-
11.02M
- 181585.00K
-
- 358827.00K
226.75M
585.58M
30.78M
- 7668.00K
23.11M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PCRX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$54.95
$179.28
$189.61
$200.54
$212.10