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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:PPBI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PPBI
Name:
PACIFIC PREMIER BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:PPBI)
Sector:
130.07M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Steven Gardner
Total Employees:
1,520
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 176.85% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PACIFIC PREMIER BANCORP, INC.(PPBI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.12
One Month Price Target:
$32.34
Six Month Price Target :
$33.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.96
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.31
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.06
This week:
$27.52
This month :
$22.93
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
94.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.68%
-18.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.66
$37.29
$22.58
$26.95
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.94
$28.36
$29.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PPBI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.19%
Comparison:
PPBI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -3.10% lower than the industry
& is -47.78% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PPBI
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.65% above industry average
Classification:
PPBI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
PPBI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.14%
Weekly Volatility:
7.02%
Monthly Volatility:
14.04%
Yearly Volatility:
48.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.48%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.68% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.40%
Weekly VaR:
-14.31%
Monthly VaR:
-28.62%
How Much Can the price of
PPBI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.16
This translates to price declining to:
$4.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PPBI is a 102.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 73.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.89% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PPBI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.833
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.177
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.963
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.867
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.983
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.955
Beta is 25.63% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 24.54% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.70%
Sustainable growth rate is -15.65% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.003
Alpha is -124.10% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -18% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PPBI
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is 16.61% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.52%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.52%
WACC is -4.34% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.1
Annual revenue growth rate is -81.17% below industry average
EPS:
$3.56
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -8.78% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.86
-
-
Debt per share
$9.80
EBITDA per share
$5.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
PPBI
P/E Ratio:
9.78
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
89.57
P/E ratio is -89.08% lower than main peers & is -21.17% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $44.17
PPBI is -27.29% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $71.22
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.41
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.05
Price to sales ratio is -5.23% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.1
Price to free cash flow: 11.22
Price to free cash flow ratio is -45.60% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
59.19%
Net income growth rate is 7.47% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.21%
Dividend yeild: 4.11%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $1.32
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.29
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.28%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.33
2021-10-29--$0.33
2021-05-06--$0.33
2022-02-03--$0.33
2021-08-05--$0.33
2021-02-04--$0.30
Dividend growth rate is -81.83% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
33.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
4.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.5
Interest coverage ratio is 2011.72% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
66.86%
Annual debt growth is 21013% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.647
Statistical significance of correlation:
PPBI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 29.24% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
5.876
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.354
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PPBI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.33%
Operating profit margin is -57.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
26.42%
Effective tax rate is 22.61% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is 1.84% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.56%
Return on assets (ROA) is -32.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
495.1K
Each employee generates 30% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
342.3K
Each employee generates 52% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
222.5K
Each employee generates 57% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
85.6K
Each employee generates 3% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.5M
Each employee generates 3% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PPBI
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (XNAS:GSHD)
HOME BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:HOMB)
INDEPENDENT BANK CORP. (XNAS:INDB)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGRP)
UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC. (XNAS:UCBI)
EASTERN BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EBC)
FREEDOM HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:FRHC)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAP)
GORES METROPOULOS II UNT (XNAS:GMIIU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
752.53M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
254.88M
262.01M
7.13M
-
-
692.29M
29.73M
31.08M
520.34M
115.40M
338.13M
459.53M
121.41M
338.13M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.32M
Differed Income Tax :
7.89M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.53M
Change in Working Capital :
52.11M
Accounts Receivables:
36.90M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 7373.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
132.38M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2308.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 499869.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
811.48M
3.22B
4.03B
60.92M
-
-
-
70.45M
901.31M
65.98M
4.22B
-
-
5.26B
26.88B
21.62B
-
-
-
-
-
-
930.73M
-
930.73M
19.77B
18.84B
933.00K
577.59M
- 144233.0K
2.35B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.78B
21.62B
7.44B
930.73M
119.3M
725.37M
- 427296.00K
- 204099.00K
-
-
- 8548.00K
- 31142.00K
615.97M
576.28M
-
504.56M
809.26M
304.70M
132.38M
- 2308.00K
130.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PPBI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.88
$129.47
$139.91
$151.20
$163.39