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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Pacific Biosciences Of California, Inc. (XNAS:PACB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PACB
Name:
PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC. (XNAS:PACB)
Sector:
- 82667.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Dr. Michael Hunkapiller
Total Employees:
728
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -145.71% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC.(PACB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.32
One Month Price Target:
$5.36
Six Month Price Target :
$5.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$4.72
This week:
$3.97
This month :
$2.63
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
224.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.49%
-19.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.11
$6.83
$2.53
$3.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.41
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.13
$4.23
$4.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PACB
Sharpe Ratio:
2.60%
Comparison:
PACB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 3.42% higher than the industry
& ratio is 14.25% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PACB
Daily returns:
0.15%
Weekly returns:
0.77%
Monthly returns:
3.09%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 32.71% above industry average
Classification:
PACB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
PACB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.59%
Weekly Volatility:
12.49%
Monthly Volatility:
24.99%
Yearly Volatility:
86.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
6.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 14.68% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.32%
Weekly VaR:
-25.32%
Monthly VaR:
-50.63%
How Much Can the price of
PACB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-43%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.03
This translates to price declining to:
$0.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PACB is a 257.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 206.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 44.73% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PACB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.33
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.121
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.586
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.724
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.789
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.021
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.249
Beta is 6.52% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 12.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.248
Alpha is 48.62% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1578% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PACB
Equity cost of capital:
0.123
Equity cost of capital is 9.10% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.67%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.19%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.19%
WACC is -21.31% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.63
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.70% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.40%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -35.17% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.20
EBITDA per share
-$1.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
PACB
P/E Ratio:
684.8
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1409.11
P/E ratio is -51.40% lower than main peers & is 1742.03% higher than the industry
-
PACB is -117.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.88
Price to sales ratio is -6.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.63
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
16.93%
Net income growth rate is -107.41% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
128.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
71.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.74%
Net debt to assets ratio:
27.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 0.30% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-16.92
Interest coverage ratio is -39.69% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1681.44%
Annual debt growth is 1522% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.483
Statistical significance of correlation:
PACB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -1.06% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.06
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.196
Kurtosis
0.877
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.265
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PACB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
178%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-188.77%
Operating profit margin is 67.79% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
178%
Effective Tax Rate:
34.82%
Effective tax rate is 81.47% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-23.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is -213.58% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-9.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is -96.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
16.87
Current ratio is 239.44% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
42.6
Cash conversion cycle is -14.09% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 32.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-12.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
185.0K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 331.9K
Each employee generates -1206% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 240.8K
Each employee generates -1605% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 113.6K
Each employee generates 5119% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.2M
Each employee generates 5119% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 75.99%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4320.48% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PACB
KARUNA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KRTX)
KODIAK SCIENCES INC. (XNAS:KOD)
ARVINAS, INC. (XNAS:ARVN)
HEALTHEQUITY, INC. (XNAS:HQY)
ALKERMES PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ALKS)
INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC. (XNAS:ITCI)
Lifestance Health Group Inc (XNAS:LFST)
STAAR SURGICAL COMPANY (XNAS:STAA)
NEOGENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:NEO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
134.69M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
74.65M
60.04M
145.29M
-
137.79M
-
-
283.08M
-
14.29M
13.00M
- 241651.00K
- 254248.00K
- 175287.00K
- 268936.00K
- 93649.00K
- 175287.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.19M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
22.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 24379.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3611.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.95M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 46.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 79029.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3638.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 76369.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
428.57M
534.20M
962.78M
27.85M
29.63M
8.94M
1.03B
80.43M
409.97M
410.75M
-
-
6.32M
907.48M
-
1.94B
17.61M
8.06M
-
12.73M
22.62M
61.01M
943.96M
171.87M
1.14B
-
1.20B
224.00K
- 1299591.00K
- 4085.0K
2.04B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
357.73M
734.58M
1.94B
-
952.02M
523.4M
122.06M
-
42.05M
- 377.00K
-
-
-
5.59M
5.22M
-
- 37243.00K
428.57M
465.82M
- 79029.00K
- 3638.00K
- 82667.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PACB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.82
$6.34
$6.91
$7.52
$8.20