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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXLC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OXLC
Name:
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLC)
Sector:
- 7939.45K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Jonathan Cohen
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP.(OXLC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.87
One Month Price Target:
$5.91
Six Month Price Target :
$6.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.32
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.92
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.33
This week:
$4.66
This month :
$3.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
904.63M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
148.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
53.53%
-48.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.39
$7.23
$3.35
$4.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.61
$4.88
$5.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OXLC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.05%
Comparison:
OXLC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 30.32% higher than the industry
& is -54.03% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OXLC
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.12%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 46.99% above industry average
Classification:
OXLC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
OXLC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.52%
Weekly Volatility:
10.11%
Monthly Volatility:
20.23%
Yearly Volatility:
70.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.92%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.59% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.23%
Weekly VaR:
-20.64%
Monthly VaR:
-41.29%
How Much Can the price of
OXLC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.76
This translates to price declining to:
$0.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OXLC is a 191.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 149.66% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 74.05% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OXLC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.763
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.493
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.979
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.314
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.931
Beta is 21.42% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -33.26% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.026
Alpha is -146.69% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 166% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OXLC
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is -26.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-122.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
-96.55%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-96.55%
WACC is -102.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -11.98% below industry average
EPS:
$0.87
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -50.03%
Equity growth rate per share is -336.76% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
-$1.79
Valuation Analysis Today of
OXLC
P/E Ratio:
5.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.16
P/E ratio is -83.22% lower than main peers & is -67.63% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $14.05
OXLC is -58.22% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.31
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.04
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
39.11
Price to sales ratio is 470.90% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.46
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
110.74%
Net income growth rate is -23.83% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -50.77%
Dividend yeild: 5.11%
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Expected next dividend best case: $0.08
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.07
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.07
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.94%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.08
2022-04-13--$0.08
2022-02-11--$0.08
2022-05-16--$0.08
2022-03-16--$0.08
2022-01-14--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -82.98% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
52.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
0.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.26%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.25
Interest coverage ratio is -96.21% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-54.91%
Annual debt growth is 694% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.453
Statistical significance of correlation:
OXLC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -21.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.033
Kurtosis
53.019
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.548
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OXLC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
117%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
250.65%
Operating profit margin is 432.89% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
117%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-24.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -198.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-15.82%
Return on assets (ROA) is -371.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
307
Cash conversion cycle is -64.66% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OXLC
WTRE
LEGACY IRON ORE LTD (XASX:LCY)
Gores Holdings VII Inc (XNAS:GSEV)
CAMDEN NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CAC)
QIWI PLC (XNAS:QIWI)
BOWX
Fanhua Inc. (XNAS:FANH)
THE BEAUTY HEALTH COMPANY (XNAS:SKIN)
CMLF
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/20
Revenue:
22.26M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
40.59M
58.35M
-
3.83M
2.64M
-
-
2.64M
-
- 118030.25K
-
- 265937.49K
55.78M
- 147907.24K
- 147907.24K
-
- 147907.24K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 4488.83K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 293383.68K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7939.45K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/21
2021
FY
90.87M
-
90.87M
17.26M
-
-
-
-
-
-
826.01M
-
-
-
934.86M
934.86M
300.00K
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
338.61M
338.61M
1.00M
- 187635.48K
-
782.88M
March 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
43.15M
596.25M
934.86M
-
96.57M
5.7M
-
-
-
- 40218.48K
114.42M
- 8178.25K
- 75093.23K
96.21M
87.14M
-
79.20M
90.87M
11.66M
- 7939.45K
-
- 7939.45K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OXLC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.35
$12.76
$13.73
$14.78
$15.90