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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Overstock.Com, Inc. (XNAS:OSTK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OSTK
Name:
OVERSTOCK.COM, INC. (XNAS:OSTK)
Sector:
26.68M
Industry:
Internet Retail
CEO:
Mr. Jonathan Johnson
Total Employees:
1,350
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 286.62% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OVERSTOCK.COM, INC.(OSTK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26
One Month Price Target:
$26.54
Six Month Price Target :
$29.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.67
This week:
$18.56
This month :
$11.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.25%
-24.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.42
$34.18
$10.58
$17.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.82
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.28
$20.16
$21.72
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OSTK
Sharpe Ratio:
5.91%
Comparison:
OSTK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 92.80% higher than the industry
& ratio is 159.37% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OSTK
Daily returns:
0.39%
Weekly returns:
1.94%
Monthly returns:
7.77%
Yearly returns:
37.29%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 150.00% above industry average
Classification:
OSTK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
OSTK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.42%
Weekly Volatility:
14.36%
Monthly Volatility:
28.72%
Yearly Volatility:
99.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.80%
Weekly VaR:
-28.62%
Monthly VaR:
-57.24%
How Much Can the price of
OSTK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.00
This translates to price declining to:
$3.90
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OSTK is a 303.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 246.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 36.44% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OSTK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--3.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.899
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.686
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
3.398
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.526
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.898
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.5
Beta is 145.86% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.105
Beta is 75.19% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
69.53%
Sustainable growth rate is 1.84% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.648
Alpha is 228.65% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4126% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OSTK
Equity cost of capital:
0.284
Equity cost of capital is 61.70% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
26.18%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.07%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.85%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.85%
WACC is 158.40% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$57.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.62
Annual revenue growth rate is -89.54% below industry average
EPS:
$7.99
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.77
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 388.02% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.96
EBITDA per share
$7.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
OSTK
P/E Ratio:
15.82
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.68
P/E ratio is 15.60% higher than main peers & is -5.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $133.23
OSTK is -80.48% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.45
Price to sales ratio is -77.96% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.62
Price to free cash flow: 33.78
Price to free cash flow ratio is 70.32% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-231.78%
Net income growth rate is -440.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.62%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.16
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
-
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 16/12/2020
Previous dividend record date: 30/11/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/11/2020
Dividend History:
2020-11-27--$0.16
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-60.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.10%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-41.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
674.48
Interest coverage ratio is 6362.07% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-24.79%
Annual debt growth is -184% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.92%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.343
Statistical significance of correlation:
OSTK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.441
Stock price is -22.14% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.441
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.115
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.428
Kurtosis
3.091
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.808
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OSTK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.68%
Operating profit margin is -53.80% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Effective Tax Rate:
-43.00%
Effective tax rate is -574.75% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
52.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is 165.72% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
36.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1122.16% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.91
Current ratio is -4.05% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-14.5
Cash conversion cycle is -122.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.0M
Each employee generates 155% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
262.8K
Each employee generates 40% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
284.0K
Each employee generates 62% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
19.8K
Each employee generates 1158% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
385.7K
Each employee generates 1158% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OSTK
PACTIV EVERGREEN INC. (XNAS:PTVE)
Franchise Group, Inc. (XNAS:FRG)
THE ODP CORPORATION (XNAS:ODP)
ALLBIRDS, INC. (XNAS:BIRD)
THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED (XNAS:CAKE)
CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:CVCO)
PROTERRA INC (XNAS:PTRA)
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
Dada Nexus Limited (XNAS:DADA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.04B
595.59M
-
178.26M
465.67M
287.41M
32.99M
498.66M
-
526.00K
17.73M
354.78M
96.93M
383.40M
109.02M
- 46876.00K
383.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.31M
Differed Income Tax :
959.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.64M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20228.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2559.00K
Other Working Capital:
259.23M
Other Non-Cash Items:
33.39M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
33.19M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3256.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 11420.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
493.26M
-
493.26M
23.75M
5.42M
21.38M
543.81M
119.72M
6.16M
-
352.83M
39.08M
2.85M
520.64M
-
1.06B
106.38M
5.48M
-
61.42M
111.30M
284.58M
43.67M
3.59M
47.26M
-
331.84M
-
- 126467.00K
- 533.0K
859.61M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.54B
732.61M
1.06B
-
49.15M
- 444111.0K
-
881.00K
- 13795.00K
- 854.00K
-
-
-
- 28432.00K
- 29286.00K
-
- 9888.00K
493.48M
503.37M
33.19M
- 6512.00K
26.68M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OSTK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.60
$98.82
$123.30
$153.86
$191.98