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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Oshkosh Corporation (XNYS:OSK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OSK
Name:
OSHKOSH CORPORATION (XNYS:OSK)
Sector:
1.11B
Industry:
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Wilson Jones
Total Employees:
15,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -115.05% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OSHKOSH CORPORATION(OSK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
79.4
One Month Price Target:
$79.99
Six Month Price Target :
$82.93
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$86.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$79.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$75.36
This week:
$70.36
This month :
$61.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.75%
-10.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.18
$89.63
$60.62
$69.17
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$86.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.02
$71.93
$73.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OSK
Sharpe Ratio:
0.00%
Comparison:
OSK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -100.16% lower than the industry
& is -100.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OSK
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.18%
Yearly returns:
21.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -89.99% below industry average
Classification:
OSK, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
OSK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.48%
Weekly Volatility:
5.56%
Monthly Volatility:
11.11%
Yearly Volatility:
38.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.52% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.09%
Weekly VaR:
-11.39%
Monthly VaR:
-22.78%
How Much Can the price of
OSK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.91%
This translates to price declining to:
$63.48
This translates to price declining to:
$16.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OSK is a 60.77% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.27% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OSK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.882
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.247
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.054
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.756
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.75
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.402
Beta is -5.56% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.134
Beta is 16.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.03%
Sustainable growth rate is -26.16% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.101
Alpha is -200.09% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -644% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OSK
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is 11.93% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.78%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.78%
WACC is 13.29% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$122.52
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.6
Annual revenue growth rate is -1.19% below industry average
EPS:
$4.43
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.28
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 37.20%
Equity growth rate per share is -60.54% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.53
EBITDA per share
$7.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
OSK
P/E Ratio:
44.99
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
38.71
P/E ratio is 16.22% higher than main peers & is 74.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $114.43
OSK is -30.61% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.85
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.70
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.65
Price to sales ratio is -64.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.6
Price to free cash flow: 9.59
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
8.24%
Net income growth rate is -83.27% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 29.38%
Dividend yeild: 1.81%
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.37
2021-11-12--$0.37
2021-05-13--$0.33
2022-02-10--$0.37
2021-08-13--$0.33
2021-02-11--$0.33
Dividend growth rate is -96.84% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.08%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.31
Interest coverage ratio is -64.77% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.52%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.63%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.679
Statistical significance of correlation:
OSK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is 22.33% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
2.728
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.075
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OSK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
51%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.44%
Operating profit margin is -185.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
51%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.79%
Effective tax rate is -102.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.47%
Return on equity (ROE) is -35.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -3.55% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.05
Current ratio is -16.54% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
54.6
Cash conversion cycle is 12.70% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
8.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
533.9K
Each employee generates 2% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
30.7K
Each employee generates -148% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
20.5K
Each employee generates -123% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
73.8K
Each employee generates 2170% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
164.9K
Each employee generates 2170% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OSK
TOPBUILD CORP. (XNYS:BLD)
CAE Inc. (XNYS:CAE)
XPO LOGISTICS, INC. (XNYS:XPO)
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HII)
NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:NLSN)
Vertiv Holdings Co (XNYS:VRT)
DUN & BRADSTREET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DNB)
ACUITY BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:AYI)
ITT INC. (XNYS:ITT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.01B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.97B
1.04B
-
-
669.20M
-
11.60M
680.80M
4.00M
49.50M
109.10M
460.90M
355.30M
307.70M
301.60M
- 5400.00K
307.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
104.00M
Differed Income Tax :
88.60M
Stock Based Compensation :
27.20M
Change in Working Capital :
532.80M
Accounts Receivables:
- 128300.00K
Other Working Capital:
180.50M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3700.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.22B
Investments in PP&E:
- 114800.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 151600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2021
FY
1.38B
-
1.38B
1.72B
1.27B
58.20M
4.42B
812.80M
1.05B
466.80M
66.60M
8.30M
67.20M
2.47B
-
6.89B
860.40M
-
64.90M
654.30M
637.00M
2.15B
818.80M
673.30M
1.49B
-
3.64B
700.00K
3.13B
- 131000.0K
248.80M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
7.65B
3.25B
6.89B
-
818.80M
- 557000.0K
-
20.80M
- 245600.00K
- 5200.00K
-
- 122100.00K
- 90400.00K
37.30M
- 180400.00K
- 2700.00K
792.90M
1.38B
582.90M
1.22B
- 114800.00K
1.11B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OSK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$86.89
$159.80
$174.02
$189.50
$206.37