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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Orthopediatrics Corp. (XNAS:KIDS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KIDS
Name:
ORTHOPEDIATRICS CORP. (XNAS:KIDS)
Sector:
- 8394.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Mark Throdahl
Total Employees:
133
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 93.73% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ORTHOPEDIATRICS CORP.(KIDS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.33
One Month Price Target:
$47.56
Six Month Price Target :
$48.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.13
This week:
$40.17
This month :
$33.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
20.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.52%
-13.99%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.18
$55.34
$32.48
$39.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.66
$41.52
$43.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KIDS
Sharpe Ratio:
2.15%
Comparison:
KIDS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 41.84% higher than the industry
& is -5.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KIDS
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.61%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 25.67% above industry average
Classification:
KIDS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
KIDS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.33%
Weekly Volatility:
7.45%
Monthly Volatility:
14.90%
Yearly Volatility:
51.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.09%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.32% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.76%
Weekly VaR:
-15.12%
Monthly VaR:
-30.24%
How Much Can the price of
KIDS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.11
This translates to price declining to:
$7.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KIDS is a 113.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 82.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.11% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KIDS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.725
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.025
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.86
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.542
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.706
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.463
Beta is -40.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -18.93% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.102
Alpha is 108.32% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 652% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KIDS
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -13.22% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
206.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
162.92%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
162.92%
WACC is 23.43% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.62
Annual revenue growth rate is -97.06% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.77
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -131.78% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.04
EBITDA per share
-$0.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
KIDS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
316.58
-
-
KIDS is -125.24% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.93
Price to sales ratio is 6.72% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.62
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-11.91%
Net income growth rate is -112.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.41%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2.82
Interest coverage ratio is -121.16% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-22.81%
Annual debt growth is -109% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.326
Statistical significance of correlation:
KIDS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -30.36% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.037
Kurtosis
2.14
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.163
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KIDS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
303%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-18.44%
Operating profit margin is 7.98% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
303%
Effective Tax Rate:
7.03%
Effective tax rate is -87.20% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-6.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -28.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is 47.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.83
Current ratio is -40.79% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
138.9
Cash conversion cycle is 149.01% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-10.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
751.9K
Each employee generates 100% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 44.2K
Each employee generates -807% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 112.6K
Each employee generates 279% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 63.1K
Each employee generates 344% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates 344% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.12%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4004.94% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
KIDS
COMPASS PATHWAYS PLC (XNAS:CMPS)
SNDL Inc. (XNAS:SNDL)
PETIQ, INC. (XNAS:PETQ)
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION (XNAS:NRC)
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
OCULAR THERAPEUTIX, INC. (XNAS:OCUL)
NEXTGEN HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:NXGN)
KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KROS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
100.00M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
24.36M
75.64M
6.26M
47.34M
87.82M
40.48M
-
94.08M
-
2.09M
8.14M
- 5885.04K
- 18437.00K
- 14981.00K
- 16114.00K
- 1133.00K
- 14981.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.96M
Differed Income Tax :
- 317.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.53M
Change in Working Capital :
733.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4197.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 4197.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
17.96M
27.07M
45.03M
17.91M
64.08M
4.41M
131.42M
31.07M
70.99M
67.52M
-
-
-
169.57M
-
301.00M
14.58M
139.00K
-
-
19.62M
34.33M
872.00K
46.41M
51.62M
-
85.95M
5.00K
- 187126.00K
5.7M
396.43M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
118.44M
215.04M
301.00M
-
1.01M
- 16946.0K
18.50M
-
14.30M
-
-
-
-
- 33.00K
- 33.00K
241.00K
19.31M
19.32M
9.01K
- 4197.00K
- 4197.00K
- 8394.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KIDS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$50.24
$53.15
$56.24
$59.50
$62.95