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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Origin Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:OBNK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OBNK
Name:
ORIGIN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:OBNK)
Sector:
13.89M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Drake Mills
Total Employees:
797
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -396.20% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ORIGIN BANCORP, INC.(OBNK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.99
One Month Price Target:
$40.2
Six Month Price Target :
$41.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.71
This week:
$34.89
This month :
$29.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.91%
-13.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.57
$45.71
$29.41
$34.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$44.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.09
$35.84
$36.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OBNK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.56%
Comparison:
OBNK, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 27.05% higher than the industry
& is -31.53% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OBNK
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.05%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 15.63% above industry average
Classification:
OBNK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
OBNK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.80%
Weekly Volatility:
6.26%
Monthly Volatility:
12.53%
Yearly Volatility:
43.40%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.94%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.70%
Weekly VaR:
-12.75%
Monthly VaR:
-25.49%
How Much Can the price of
OBNK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.31%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.22
This translates to price declining to:
$4.68
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OBNK is a 79.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 54.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.94% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OBNK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.669
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.947
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.615
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.404
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.687
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.198
Beta is -19.96% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -0.52% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.86%
Sustainable growth rate is 51.81% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.029
Alpha is 149.95% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 185% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OBNK
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -0.35% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.15%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.15%
WACC is -18.20% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.81
Annual revenue growth rate is 0.56% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.39
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.07%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 116.86% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.54
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 81.70%
Equity growth rate per share is 110.98% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$15.11
EBITDA per share
$5.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
OBNK
P/E Ratio:
9.73
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.26
P/E ratio is -51.97% lower than main peers & is -21.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $54.47
OBNK is -26.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.37
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.71
Price to sales ratio is 10.13% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.81
Price to free cash flow: 8.81
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
97.01%
Net income growth rate is 76.15% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.97%
Dividend yeild: 1.35%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.13
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.35%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-16--$0.15
2021-11-18--$0.13
2021-05-13--$0.13
2022-02-11--$0.13
2021-08-19--$0.13
2021-02-11--$0.10
Dividend growth rate is -77.29% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.41%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.52
Interest coverage ratio is 686.43% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-61.55%
Annual debt growth is -19536% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.366
Statistical significance of correlation:
OBNK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -26.87% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
4.34
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.304
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OBNK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.25%
Effective tax rate is -15.30% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is 28.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is -44.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
326.4K
Each employee generates -14% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
198.7K
Each employee generates -12% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
130.1K
Each employee generates -8% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
17.4K
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.7M
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OBNK
WISDOMTREE INVESTMENTS, INC. (XNAS:WETF)
METROMILE, INC. (XNAS:MILE)
HERITAGE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:HFWA)
Calamos Conv Opp Inc (XNAS:CHI)
COWEN INC. (XNAS:COWN)
PREFERRED BANK (XNAS:PFBC)
LANDCADIA HOLDINGS IV UNT (XNAS:LCAHU)
FIRST FOUNDATION INC. (XNAS:FFWM)
CONNECTONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CNOB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
260.11M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
68.34M
-
116.92M
120.55M
3.63M
-
-
237.81M
24.30M
7.20M
158.37M
-
103.72M
126.87M
23.15M
103.72M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.07M
Differed Income Tax :
2.57M
Stock Based Compensation :
737.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 195.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 195.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 10729.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
15.14M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1243.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 431062.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
584.44M
1.91B
2.49B
161.77M
-
-
-
80.42M
50.58M
21.19M
1.96B
-
-
2.12B
10.23B
8.11B
-
-
-
-
-
-
463.04M
-
463.04M
7.90B
7.44B
118.74M
381.22M
- 65890.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
676.87M
8.11B
3.87B
463.04M
- 121406.0K
61.07M
40.78M
- 330452.00K
- 64.00K
-
-
- 3084.00K
197.29M
194.14M
-
- 121174.00K
584.44M
705.62M
15.14M
- 1243.00K
13.89M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OBNK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$42.78
$72.49
$77.16
$82.13
$87.43