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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (XNAS:ORGO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ORGO
Name:
ORGANOGENESIS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ORGO)
Sector:
- 5261.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. Gary S. Gillheeney Sr.
Total Employees:
950
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2785.18% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ORGANOGENESIS HOLDINGS INC.(ORGO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.49
One Month Price Target:
$3.52
Six Month Price Target :
$3.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.13
This week:
$2.69
This month :
$1.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
475.12M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
130.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.24%
-19.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.16
$4.39
$1.82
$2.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.98
$2.83
$3.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ORGO
Sharpe Ratio:
1.30%
Comparison:
ORGO, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 43.18% higher than the industry
& is -42.75% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ORGO
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.49%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 26.26% above industry average
Classification:
ORGO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
ORGO has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.05%
Weekly Volatility:
11.29%
Monthly Volatility:
22.57%
Yearly Volatility:
78.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.29%
Weekly VaR:
-23.01%
Monthly VaR:
-46.02%
How Much Can the price of
ORGO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.10
This translates to price declining to:
$0.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ORGO is a 224.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 178.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 34.24% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ORGO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.56
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.89
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.976
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.451
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.235
Beta is 26.08% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is 47.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
36.76%
Sustainable growth rate is 13.99% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.041
Alpha is 7.34% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 262% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ORGO
Equity cost of capital:
0.138
Equity cost of capital is 33.26% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.34%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.34%
WACC is 40.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.70% below industry average
EPS:
$0.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.24
-
-
Debt per share
$0.88
EBITDA per share
$0.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
ORGO
P/E Ratio:
6.86
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is -82.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $25.58
ORGO is -86.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.99
Price to sales ratio is -86.08% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.88
Price to free cash flow: 14.42
Price to free cash flow ratio is 1.06% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-178.94%
Net income growth rate is -67.34% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
47.36%
Net debt to equity ratio:
9.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -48.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.99
Interest coverage ratio is 101.31% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
89.79%
Annual debt growth is 1263% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.49%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.34
Statistical significance of correlation:
ORGO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -16.84% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.106
Kurtosis
8.063
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.257
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ORGO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
302%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.19%
Operating profit margin is -139.24% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
302%
Effective Tax Rate:
-58.15%
Effective tax rate is -546.62% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
34.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -451.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
19.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is -622.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.84
Current ratio is -13.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-9.7
Cash conversion cycle is -106.44% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 34.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
488.0K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
81.0K
Each employee generates -14% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
89.5K
Each employee generates -13% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.5K
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
229.9K
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 53.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 708.21% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ORGO
Relay Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:RLAY)
ROCKET PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RCKT)
MorphoSys AG (XNAS:MOR)
ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ALXO)
Accolade Inc (XNAS:ACCD)
AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:FOLD)
PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTCT)
Burning Rock Biotech Ltd (XNAS:BNR)
INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC. (XNAS:ITCI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
463.62M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
113.78M
349.84M
33.12M
-
255.55M
-
-
288.67M
-
5.50M
17.71M
76.99M
61.17M
85.05M
53.78M
- 31271.00K
85.05M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.42M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6898.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.94M
Other Working Capital:
- 1751.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.50M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.41M
Investments in PP&E:
- 6672.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
107.90M
-
107.90M
79.48M
22.74M
7.74M
217.85M
131.74M
28.77M
24.45M
-
31.99M
1.47M
218.42M
-
436.27M
27.94M
15.00M
-
-
33.86M
76.79M
115.19M
1.06M
116.25M
-
193.04M
13.00K
- 60046.00K
-
303.26M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
402.45M
243.23M
436.27M
-
130.19M
22.3M
-
-
- 6672.00K
- 568.00K
-
-
-
- 197.00K
- 765.00K
-
- 6026.00K
108.50M
114.53M
1.41M
- 6672.00K
- 5261.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ORGO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.75
$4.14
$4.58
$5.06
$5.58