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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Orasure Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:OSUR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OSUR
Name:
ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:OSUR)
Sector:
- 84228.00K
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Dr. Stephen Tang
Total Employees:
785
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -408.36% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(OSUR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.98
One Month Price Target:
$3.98
Six Month Price Target :
$3.98
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.01
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.61
This week:
$3.14
This month :
$2.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
279.58M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
72.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.37%
-33.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.72
$4.93
$2.24
$3.03
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.50
$3.29
$3.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OSUR
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.07%
Comparison:
OSUR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -104.56% lower than the industry
& is -103.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OSUR
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.11%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -91.00% below industry average
Classification:
OSUR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
OSUR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.58%
Weekly Volatility:
10.23%
Monthly Volatility:
20.46%
Yearly Volatility:
70.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.39%
Weekly VaR:
-21.00%
Monthly VaR:
-42.00%
How Much Can the price of
OSUR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.50
This translates to price declining to:
$0.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OSUR is a 196.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 153.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 57.60% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OSUR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500---0.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.658
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.931
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.025
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.789
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.566
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.967
Beta is -102.70% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is -102.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.017
Alpha is -134.70% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -105% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OSUR
Equity cost of capital:
0.030
Equity cost of capital is -70.07% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.85%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -67.85% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.65
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.16
EBITDA per share
-$0.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
OSUR
P/E Ratio:
152.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.36
P/E ratio is 477.75% higher than main peers & is 205.29% higher than the industry
-
OSUR is -112.27% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.19
Price to sales ratio is -83.95% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.79
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-202.08%
Net income growth rate is 91.23% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-15.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.74%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
100.29%
Annual debt growth is -9% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.247
Statistical significance of correlation:
OSUR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is -51.14% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.074
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.197
Kurtosis
13.939
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.609
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OSUR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-15.06%
Operating profit margin is -212.50% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Effective Tax Rate:
-31.19%
Effective tax rate is -194.92% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-12.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -71.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-10.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is -249.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.83
Current ratio is 32.22% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0.1
Cash conversion cycle is -99.87% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
309.3K
Each employee generates -13% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 28.0K
Each employee generates -125% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 59.5K
Each employee generates -177% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 107.3K
Each employee generates 1764% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
213.0K
Each employee generates 1764% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.11%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3805.46% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
OSUR
Nyxoah SA (XNAS:NYXH)
InnovAge Holding Corp. (XNAS:INNV)
CELULARITY INC. (XNAS:CELU)
CINCOR PHARMA, INC. (XNAS:CINC)
Affimed NV (XNAS:AFMD)
PERSONALIS, INC. (XNAS:PSNL)
TALARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TALS)
ORIC PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ORIC)
RELMADA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RLMD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
242.80M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
139.25M
103.55M
33.59M
59.30M
107.23M
47.94M
-
140.83M
-
-
13.63M
- 21996.00K
- 36564.00K
- 46739.00K
- 35626.00K
11.11M
- 46739.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.76M
Differed Income Tax :
200.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.52M
Change in Working Capital :
- 25654.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 15295.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 44.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.31M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 35821.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 48407.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
70.72M
41.50M
112.22M
59.67M
61.54M
34.93M
268.36M
111.98M
40.39M
13.69M
-
-
1.11M
167.17M
-
435.53M
27.06M
3.51M
1.73M
3.69M
21.32M
55.59M
11.93M
669.00K
15.06M
-
70.65M
-
- 140420.00K
- 8247.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
280.08M
364.89M
435.53M
-
15.45M
- 55273.0K
12.14M
26.33M
- 9939.00K
- 153.00K
-
- 1049.00K
-
- 193.00K
- 1395.00K
1.11M
- 46041.00K
70.72M
116.76M
- 35821.00K
- 48407.00K
- 84228.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OSUR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.98
$3.98
$3.97
$3.96
$3.95