_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Oracle Corporation (XNYS:ORCL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ORCL
Name:
ORACLE CORPORATION (XNYS:ORCL)
Sector:
4.33B
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Ms. Safra Catz
Total Employees:
143,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -999.54% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ORACLE CORPORATION(ORCL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
74.68
One Month Price Target:
$75.04
Six Month Price Target :
$76.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$79.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$74.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$75.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.44
This week:
$67.43
This month :
$60.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
196.83B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.66B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.43%
-11.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.71
$82.77
$59.65
$66.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$80.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.03
$68.83
$70.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ORCL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.55%
Comparison:
ORCL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 56.20% higher than the industry
& ratio is 12.05% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ORCL
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.27%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 6.12% above industry average
Classification:
ORCL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
ORCL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.14%
Weekly Volatility:
4.79%
Monthly Volatility:
9.59%
Yearly Volatility:
33.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.34%
Weekly VaR:
-9.70%
Monthly VaR:
-19.41%
How Much Can the price of
ORCL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-67.22%
This translates to price declining to:
$62.41
This translates to price declining to:
$24.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ORCL is a 36.96% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -35.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ORCL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.66
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.933
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.02
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.719
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.712
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.165
Beta is -25.58% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -22.02% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1092.10%
Sustainable growth rate is 195.50% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.062
Alpha is 70.70% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 393% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ORCL
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -15.58% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.63%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.63%
WACC is -37.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-176.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -42.12% below industry average
EPS:
$2.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -116.80% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.86
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 36.50%
Equity growth rate per share is -1507.63% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.51
EBITDA per share
$5.08
Valuation Analysis Today of
ORCL
P/E Ratio:
31.12
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
124.36
P/E ratio is -74.98% lower than main peers & is -52.30% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $157.22
ORCL is -52.50% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $54.40
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $22.97
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.69
Price to sales ratio is -57.30% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-176.12
Price to free cash flow: 40.18
Price to free cash flow ratio is -43.01% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
402.88%
Net income growth rate is -95.25% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.20%
Dividend yeild: 1.71%
Previous Dividend: $0.32
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.32
Previous Dividend: $1.28
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 21/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/08/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-07--$0.32
2021-10-08--$0.32
2021-04-07--$0.32
2022-01-06--$0.32
2021-07-14--$0.32
2021-01-06--$0.24
Dividend growth rate is -48.92% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-4929.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3871.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
61.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -11.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.91
Interest coverage ratio is -102.33% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
17.67%
Annual debt growth is -84% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.673
Statistical significance of correlation:
ORCL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 40.39% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.001
Kurtosis
19.409
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.66
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ORCL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
326%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.75%
Operating profit margin is -316.95% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
326%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.17%
Effective tax rate is -61.15% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-435.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -508.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -244.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.6x
Current Ratio:
2.04
Current ratio is -12.27% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-6.1
Cash conversion cycle is -105.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
8.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
296.8K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
94.6K
Each employee generates 45% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
47.0K
Each employee generates 124% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
30.3K
Each employee generates 53% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
530.1K
Each employee generates 53% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 7.58%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -392.40% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ORCL
ACCENTURE PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:ACN)
SALESFORCE, INC. (XNYS:CRM)
SAP SE (XNYS:SAP)
SHOPIFY INC. (XNYS:SHOP)
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION (XNYS:IBM)
SERVICENOW, INC. (XNYS:NOW)
INFOSYS LIMITED (XNYS:INFY)
SNOWFLAKE INC. (XNYS:SNOW)
UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:UBER)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�42%
Buy�67%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/31/22
Revenue:
42.44B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.71B
34.73B
7.22B
1.32B
9.37B
8.05B
7.12B
23.70B
57.00M
2.76B
3.12B
13.53B
10.93B
6.72B
7.65B
931.00M
6.72B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
757.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 15000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
545.00M
Change in Working Capital :
1.67B
Accounts Receivables:
852.00M
Other Working Capital:
1.49B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 27000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.39B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 50000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 7671000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/31/21
2022
Q1
23.06B
16.25B
39.31B
4.48B
-
3.33B
47.12B
7.61B
43.86B
2.18B
-
13.39B
8.76B
75.81B
-
122.92B
749.00M
6.75B
-
10.01B
5.56B
23.07B
75.97B
17.37B
100.98B
-
124.05B
25.53B
- 25679000.00K
- 1396000.0K
-
August 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
31.41B
- 1541000.00K
122.51B
-
82.72B
59.7B
8.00B
- 1062000.00K
- 781000.00K
- 1500000.00K
148.00M
- 8815000.00K
- 887000.00K
- 414000.00K
- 11468000.00K
- 181000.00K
- 7039000.00K
23.06B
30.10B
5.39B
- 1062000.00K
4.33B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ORCL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$79.43
$146.39
$154.91
$163.94
$173.49