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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Optimizerx Corporation (XNAS:OPRX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OPRX
Name:
OPTIMIZERX CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRX)
Sector:
4.01M
Industry:
Health Information Services
CEO:
Mr. William Febbo
Total Employees:
97
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -162.69% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OPTIMIZERX CORPORATION(OPRX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HEALTH INFORMATION SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15
One Month Price Target:
$15.07
Six Month Price Target :
$15.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.82
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.58
This week:
$11.82
This month :
$8.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
270.35M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.89%
-30.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.59
$18.53
$8.41
$11.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.89
$12.45
$13.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OPRX
Sharpe Ratio:
3.48%
Comparison:
OPRX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 238.93% higher than the industry
& ratio is 52.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OPRX
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.86%
Monthly returns:
3.45%
Yearly returns:
5.07%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 714.83% above industry average
Classification:
OPRX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
OPRX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.69%
Weekly Volatility:
10.50%
Monthly Volatility:
20.99%
Yearly Volatility:
72.73%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -50.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.47%
Weekly VaR:
-21.17%
Monthly VaR:
-42.35%
How Much Can the price of
OPRX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.68
This translates to price declining to:
$2.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OPRX is a 198.88% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 156.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 38.02% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OPRX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.685
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.969
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.7
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.895
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.477
Beta is -44.76% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.87
Beta is -6.22% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.05%
Sustainable growth rate is -92.28% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.326
Alpha is -907.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2076% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OPRX
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is -4.07% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.00%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.00%
WACC is 8.41% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.06
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.80% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.15
-
-
Debt per share
$0.01
EBITDA per share
-$0.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
OPRX
P/E Ratio:
1737.45
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.75
P/E ratio is 6920.54% higher than main peers & is 375.43% higher than the industry
-
OPRX is -125.65% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.24
Price to sales ratio is -44.10% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.06
Price to free cash flow: 101.92
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2.58%
Net income growth rate is -99.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-67.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-64.18%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.55% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-278318.33
Interest coverage ratio is -1847766.90% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-26.97%
Annual debt growth is -165% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.253
Statistical significance of correlation:
OPRX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.376
Stock price is -32.83% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.376
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.077
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.211
Kurtosis
6.581
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.091
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OPRX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
235%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-4.33%
Operating profit margin is -75.76% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
235%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -35.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is 14.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
16.39
Current ratio is 191.07% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
139.1
Cash conversion cycle is 182.82% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-115.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
657.7K
Each employee generates 58% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 8.6K
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 28.3K
Each employee generates -64% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
41.4K
Each employee generates 228% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
262.3K
Each employee generates 228% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 663.80% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
OPRX
VIEWRAY, INC. (XNAS:VRAY)
MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE, INC. (XNAS:VIVO)
MESOBLAST LIMITED (XNAS:MESO)
SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC. (XNAS:STRO)
AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC (XNAS:AMPH)
OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:OLMA)
Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd (XNAS:CNTB)
IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:IKNA)
G1 THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GTHX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
63.79M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
26.18M
37.62M
-
38.13M
38.24M
829.10K
2.14M
40.38M
16.05K
0.00K
1.91M
- 834.96K
- 2761.69K
- 2745.64K
- 2745.64K
-
- 2745.64K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
471.54K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.17M
Change in Working Capital :
4.17M
Accounts Receivables:
5.64M
Other Working Capital:
- 96.87K
Other Non-Cash Items:
21.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.08M
Investments in PP&E:
- 14.48K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
88.95M
-
88.95M
19.14M
-
4.61M
112.70M
137.44K
14.74M
10.55M
-
-
12.86K
25.44M
-
138.14M
3.78M
87.58K
-
1.29M
1.72M
6.88M
212.95K
-
212.95K
-
7.09M
17.90K
- 39014.76K
-
170.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
66.56M
131.05M
138.14M
-
300.53K
- 88653.9K
-
- 51.27K
- 65.75K
-
-
-
-
258.13K
258.13K
-
4.27M
88.95M
84.68M
4.08M
- 65.75K
4.01M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OPRX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.87
$16.74
$17.66
$18.63
$19.65