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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Opko Health, Inc. (XNAS:OPK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OPK
Name:
OPKO HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:OPK)
Sector:
- 25107.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Dr. Phillip Frost
Total Employees:
5,767
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -20.78% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OPKO HEALTH, INC.(OPK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.13
One Month Price Target:
$2.15
Six Month Price Target :
$2.26
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1.91
This week:
$1.64
This month :
$1.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.64B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
771.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.8%
-23.82%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.15
$2.68
$1.11
$1.58
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$2.52
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.42
$1.74
$1.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OPK
Sharpe Ratio:
3.32%
Comparison:
OPK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 32.01% higher than the industry
& ratio is 45.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OPK
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.89%
Monthly returns:
3.56%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 53.09% above industry average
Classification:
OPK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
OPK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.09%
Weekly Volatility:
11.38%
Monthly Volatility:
22.77%
Yearly Volatility:
78.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.01%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.28%
Weekly VaR:
-22.98%
Monthly VaR:
-45.96%
How Much Can the price of
OPK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.31
This translates to price declining to:
$0.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OPK is a 224.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 177.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 31.86% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OPK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.066
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.507
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.525
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.131
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.825
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.316
Beta is 32.79% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 47.94% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.42%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.64% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.276
Alpha is 65.61% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1758% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OPK
Equity cost of capital:
0.151
Equity cost of capital is 34.51% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.56%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.56%
WACC is 59.74% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.02
Annual revenue growth rate is -53.01% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-54.48%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -302.96% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.32
EBITDA per share
-$0.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
OPK
P/E Ratio:
27.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.04
P/E ratio is 127.32% higher than main peers & is -26.35% lower than the industry
-
OPK is -131.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.05
Price to sales ratio is -88.90% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.02
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-82.88%
Net income growth rate is -63.74% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
10.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.68%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -77.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.26
Interest coverage ratio is -95.52% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.52%
Annual debt growth is -113% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 86.99%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.354
Statistical significance of correlation:
OPK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -27.33% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.153
Kurtosis
5.706
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.563
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OPK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-5.91%
Operating profit margin is -94.75% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.18%
Effective tax rate is -73.01% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -134.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is -98.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.44
Current ratio is -50.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34.8
Cash conversion cycle is -29.85% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
270.3K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 3.5K
Each employee generates -112% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 20.2K
Each employee generates -226% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.4K
Each employee generates 100% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
269.3K
Each employee generates 100% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 2.04%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -213.13% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
OPK
Tilray Brands, Inc. (XNAS:TLRY)
INSMED INCORPORATED (XNAS:INSM)
IRHYTHM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:IRTC)
CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:CYTK)
ADAPTHEALTH CORP. (XNAS:AHCO)
1LIFE HEALTHCARE, INC (XNAS:ONEM)
EQRx, Inc. (XNAS:EQRX)
ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ZNTL)
Relay Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:RLAY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.56B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.07B
485.21M
75.85M
-
474.11M
-
59.73M
609.68M
32.00K
16.15M
86.54M
- 20302.00K
- 92111.00K
- 116654.00K
- 122356.00K
- 6336.00K
- 116654.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.81M
Differed Income Tax :
- 22356.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.62M
Change in Working Capital :
20.24M
Accounts Receivables:
44.42M
Other Working Capital:
2.19M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.26M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 19856.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
102.28M
-
102.28M
221.30M
99.41M
331.09M
754.07M
124.67M
519.05M
890.50M
9.46M
-
9.12M
1.55B
-
2.31B
94.24M
31.55M
-
258.00K
183.12M
309.17M
247.95M
9.62M
382.80M
-
691.97M
6.90M
- 1549951.00K
- 31415.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.68B
1.61B
2.31B
-
279.51M
177.2M
-
- 4903.00K
- 4903.00K
- 1657193.00K
-
-
-
1.65B
- 7891.00K
221.00K
- 32429.00K
102.28M
134.71M
- 19856.00K
- 5251.00K
- 25107.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OPK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.39
$1.42
$1.59
$1.78
$1.99