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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Onespan Inc. (XNAS:OSPN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OSPN
Name:
ONESPAN INC. (XNAS:OSPN)
Sector:
3.38M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Scott Clements
Total Employees:
879
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.16% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ONESPAN INC.(OSPN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.85
One Month Price Target:
$10.88
Six Month Price Target :
$11.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.92
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.02
This week:
$8.99
This month :
$7.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
405.06M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.60M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.74%
-39.62%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.71
$12.95
$6.99
$8.75
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.00
$9.32
$9.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OSPN
Sharpe Ratio:
0.12%
Comparison:
OSPN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -92.91% lower than the industry
& is -94.91% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OSPN
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.26%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -78.01% below industry average
Classification:
OSPN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.24
Statistical test of Returns:
OSPN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.73%
Weekly Volatility:
8.35%
Monthly Volatility:
16.70%
Yearly Volatility:
57.84%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.65%
Weekly VaR:
-17.11%
Monthly VaR:
-34.23%
How Much Can the price of
OSPN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.58
This translates to price declining to:
$1.63
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OSPN is a 141.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 106.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.05% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OSPN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.467
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.661
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.528
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.965
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.746
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.253
Beta is -54.86% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -49.12% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.039
Alpha is -206.76% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -246% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OSPN
Equity cost of capital:
0.070
Equity cost of capital is -34.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.07%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.06%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.06%
WACC is -9.50% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.92
Annual revenue growth rate is -97.47% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.25
EBITDA per share
-$0.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
OSPN
P/E Ratio:
745.99
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
207.82
P/E ratio is 258.97% higher than main peers & is 1043.54% higher than the industry
-
OSPN is -140.57% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.99
Price to sales ratio is -81.90% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.92
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-901.60%
Net income growth rate is -110.63% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-32.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-21.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.76% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-197.71
Interest coverage ratio is -6.31% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.90%
Annual debt growth is -117% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.402
Statistical significance of correlation:
OSPN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -16.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.045
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.099
Kurtosis
22.779
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-2.353
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OSPN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-12.06%
Operating profit margin is 1.65% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
268%
Effective Tax Rate:
-60.52%
Effective tax rate is -293.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -106.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is 27.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.35
Current ratio is 0.77% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
66.1
Cash conversion cycle is -41.25% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-8.39%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
245.9K
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1.6K
Each employee generates -102% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 18.5K
Each employee generates -188% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.8K
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
167.5K
Each employee generates -81% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 15.10%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -682.30% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
OSPN
CHUBA
CHUBK
I3 VERTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IIIV)
AUDIOCODES LTD (XNAS:AUDC)
SECUREWORKS CORP. (XNAS:SCWX)
ADTRAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ADTN)
IDEX CORPORATION (XNYS:IEX)
EBIX, INC. (XNAS:EBIX)
SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SGH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
216.15M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
71.99M
144.16M
48.92M
55.38M
115.62M
60.25M
5.70M
170.24M
2.00K
7.00K
8.71M
- 1384.00K
- 26077.00K
- 16219.00K
- 10104.00K
6.12M
- 16219.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.10M
Differed Income Tax :
794.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.36M
Change in Working Capital :
9.00M
Accounts Receivables:
19.89M
Other Working Capital:
- 5729.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 14809.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.66M
Investments in PP&E:
- 272.00K
Net Acquisitions:
18.87M
Purchases of Investments:
- 15812.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
83.65M
36.30M
119.95M
41.11M
10.39M
17.25M
188.70M
19.10M
94.59M
19.73M
-
3.68M
10.12M
147.22M
-
335.91M
7.23M
-
735.00K
50.99M
22.22M
80.44M
9.93M
12.61M
31.88M
-
112.32M
40.00K
148.39M
- 13306.0K
88.47M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
242.23M
223.60M
335.91M
-
9.93M
- 73713.0K
14.50M
- 7.00K
17.28M
-
-
-
-
- 635.00K
- 635.00K
- 45.00K
20.26M
84.49M
64.23M
3.66M
- 279.00K
3.38M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OSPN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$11.30
$11.72
$12.17
$12.63
$13.11