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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Oneok, Inc. (XNYS:OKE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OKE
Name:
ONEOK, INC. (XNYS:OKE)
Sector:
205.23M
Industry:
Oil & Gas Midstream
CEO:
Mr. Terry Spencer
Total Employees:
2,847
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -116.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ONEOK, INC.(OKE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
60.55
One Month Price Target:
$61.1
Six Month Price Target :
$63.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$67.18
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$60.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$60.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.71
This week:
$49.73
This month :
$38.92
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
26.62B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
446.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.31%
-37.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.00
$72.72
$38.10
$48.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$69.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$67.18
$51.70
$53.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OKE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.18%
Comparison:
OKE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -58.98% lower than the industry
& is -48.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OKE
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.10%
Yearly returns:
30.53%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -56.86% below industry average
Classification:
OKE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
OKE has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.92%
Weekly Volatility:
8.76%
Monthly Volatility:
17.51%
Yearly Volatility:
60.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.99%
Weekly VaR:
-17.86%
Monthly VaR:
-35.72%
How Much Can the price of
OKE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.80
This translates to price declining to:
$9.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OKE is a 152.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 116.00% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.36% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OKE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.909
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.285
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.622
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.981
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.078
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.975
Beta is -17.48% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.441
Beta is 13.08% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.011
Alpha is -106.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -73% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OKE
Equity cost of capital:
0.143
Equity cost of capital is 9.92% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.47%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.12%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.12%
WACC is -0.04% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -85.16% below industry average
EPS:
$3.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -403.84% lower than the Oil & Gas Midstream industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.71
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.13%
Equity growth rate per share is -866.69% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.70
EBITDA per share
$7.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
OKE
P/E Ratio:
17.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.83
P/E ratio is -17.30% lower than main peers & is -3.83% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $60.19
OKE is 0.60% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $35.31
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.60
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.44
Price to sales ratio is -48.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.51
Price to free cash flow: 16.30
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
20.03%
Net income growth rate is -111.70% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 27.74%
Dividend yeild: 6.18%
Previous Dividend: $0.94
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.94
Previous Dividend: $3.74
Expected next dividend best case: $0.94
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.93
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.93
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.94
2021-10-29--$0.94
2021-04-23--$0.94
2022-01-28--$0.94
2021-07-30--$0.94
2021-01-29--$0.94
Dividend growth rate is -100.00% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
213.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
230.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
57.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -23.00% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.62
Interest coverage ratio is -12.80% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.22%
Annual debt growth is -313% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.569
Statistical significance of correlation:
OKE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.464
Stock price is 22.59% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.464
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.059
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.134
Kurtosis
26.509
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.373
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OKE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.81%
Operating profit margin is -32.02% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.37%
Effective tax rate is 33.58% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -55.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is 84.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
0.76
Current ratio is -55.88% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7.9
Cash conversion cycle is -113.26% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
6.6M
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates 237% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
528.5K
Each employee generates -291% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
72.1K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
7.5M
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OKE
Cenovus Energy Inc. (XNYS:CVE)
Ecopetrol SA (XNYS:EC)
HESS CORPORATION (XNYS:HES)
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:OXY)
MPLX COM UNT (XNYS:MPLX)
HALLIBURTON COMPANY (XNYS:HAL)
BAKER HUGHES COMPANY (XNAS:BKR)
DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:DVN)
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:VLO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
18.79B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.12B
3.67B
-
-
-
-
1.08B
1.08B
-
719.46M
618.44M
3.33B
2.59B
1.50B
1.99B
484.79M
1.50B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
153.86M
Differed Income Tax :
110.53M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 217297.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 243501.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 212936.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
23.95M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
462.21M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
14.61M
-
14.61M
1.68B
732.41M
211.85M
2.64B
19.43B
-
-
797.39M
-
368.07M
21.35B
-
23.99B
1.73B
986.40M
-
-
766.26M
3.48B
12.82B
414.08M
14.52B
-
18.00B
4.75M
-
- 467672.0K
6.46B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
16.20B
5.99B
23.99B
-
13.81B
13.8B
-
- 243705.00K
- 243705.00K
-
-
-
- 417417.00K
67.13M
- 350287.00K
-
- 131781.00K
14.61M
146.39M
462.21M
- 256978.00K
205.23M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OKE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$74.83
$83.02
$92.11
$102.20
$113.39