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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Onemain Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:OMF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OMF
Name:
OneMain Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:OMF)
Sector:
552.00M
Industry:
Credit Services
CEO:
Mr. Doug Shulman
Total Employees:
8,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC.(OMF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CREDIT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
34.84
One Month Price Target:
$35.15
Six Month Price Target :
$36.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$34.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$32.1
This week:
$28.71
This month :
$22.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.25B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
123.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.78%
-32.99%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.56
$41.74
$22.12
$27.94
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.61
$29.81
$31.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OMF
Sharpe Ratio:
0.96%
Comparison:
OMF, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -48.28% lower than the industry
& is -57.81% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OMF
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
19.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -42.21% below industry average
Classification:
OMF, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
1
Statistical test of Returns:
OMF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.85%
Weekly Volatility:
8.62%
Monthly Volatility:
17.23%
Yearly Volatility:
59.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.41% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.87%
Weekly VaR:
-17.59%
Monthly VaR:
-35.19%
How Much Can the price of
OMF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.18
This translates to price declining to:
$5.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OMF is a 148.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 112.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 16.77% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OMF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.924
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.307
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.304
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.052
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.071
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.057
Beta is 52.32% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.332
Beta is 20.86% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.84%
Sustainable growth rate is -58.97% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.032
Alpha is -146.58% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -201% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OMF
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is 15.51% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.14%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.14%
WACC is -24.94% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.39
Annual revenue growth rate is -87.49% below industry average
EPS:
$9.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.29%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -34.98% lower than the Credit Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$17.03
-
-
Debt per share
$141.99
EBITDA per share
$21.95
Valuation Analysis Today of
OMF
P/E Ratio:
4.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.02
P/E ratio is -47.19% lower than main peers & is -65.12% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $111.06
OMF is -68.63% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.08
Price to sales ratio is -79.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.39
Price to free cash flow: 2.05
Price to free cash flow ratio is -92.21% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
203.75%
Net income growth rate is 1161.48% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.48%
Dividend yeild: 19.52%
Previous Dividend: $0.95
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.95
Previous Dividend: $6.80
Expected next dividend best case: $2.11
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 189.97%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.95
2021-11-01--$0.70
2021-05-05--$0.70
2022-02-11--$0.95
2021-08-05--$4.20
2021-02-17--$3.95
Dividend growth rate is -2085.56% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
568.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
547.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
80.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
77.59%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 3.29% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.95
Interest coverage ratio is -70.00% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.28%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.22%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.602
Statistical significance of correlation:
OMF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.561
Stock price is 7.43% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.561
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
11.821
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.851
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OMF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.42%
Operating profit margin is -19.45% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.40%
Effective tax rate is 12.70% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
38.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is -9.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
5.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
454.0K
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
308.4K
Each employee generates -26% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
136.6K
Each employee generates -44% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
62.7K
Each employee generates 7% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 7% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OMF
AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC. (XNYS:AMG)
PROSPERITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:PB)
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC (XNYS:JHG)
Bancolombia SA (XNYS:CIB)
CCIV
FS KKR CAPITAL CORP. (XNYS:FSK)
HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC. (XNYS:HLI)
THE WESTERN UNION COMPANY (XNYS:WU)
RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:RNR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
1.97B
-
838.00M
838.00M
-
- 1314000.00K
- 763000.00K
4.39B
921.00M
203.00M
2.71B
-
1.20B
1.59B
388.00M
1.20B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
61.00M
Differed Income Tax :
21.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 581000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
40.38B
Other Non-Cash Items:
169.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
552.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 90000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
640.00M
-
640.00M
-
-
-
-
-
1.44B
274.00M
1.78B
-
-
-
21.81B
21.81B
-
-
-
-
-
-
17.56B
-
17.61B
36.32B
18.72B
1.00M
1.91B
- 11000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
3.09B
21.81B
-
17.56B
16.9B
-
140.00M
50.00M
- 398000.00K
-
- 110000.00K
- 126000.00K
186.00M
- 448000.00K
-
154.00M
1.17B
1.02B
552.00M
-
552.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OMF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.80
$62.86
$69.66
$77.20
$85.55