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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Omnicell, Inc. (XNAS:OMCL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OMCL
Name:
OMNICELL, INC. (XNAS:OMCL)
Sector:
- 31337.00K
Industry:
Health Information Services
CEO:
Mr. Randall Lipps
Total Employees:
3,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -53.22% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OMNICELL, INC.(OMCL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HEALTH INFORMATION SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
99.66
One Month Price Target:
$100.25
Six Month Price Target :
$103.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$106.76
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$99.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$100.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$94.87
This week:
$88.95
This month :
$78.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.40B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.29M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.71%
-15.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$121.87
$111.65
$77.45
$87.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$108.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.13
$90.97
$93.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OMCL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.04%
Comparison:
OMCL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 98.81% higher than the industry
& is -10.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OMCL
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.14%
Yearly returns:
5.07%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 170.47% above industry average
Classification:
OMCL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
OMCL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.37%
Weekly Volatility:
5.29%
Monthly Volatility:
10.59%
Yearly Volatility:
36.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.80%
Weekly VaR:
-10.74%
Monthly VaR:
-21.48%
How Much Can the price of
OMCL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-74.42%
This translates to price declining to:
$81.38
This translates to price declining to:
$25.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OMCL is a 51.63% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 29.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -30.41% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OMCL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.81
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.145
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.016
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.523
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.712
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.239
Beta is -14.47% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.87
Beta is 21.79% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -47.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.033
Alpha is -182.15% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 211% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OMCL
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is 14.26% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.76%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.60%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.60%
WACC is -5.83% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.11
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.61% below industry average
EPS:
$1.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -93.56% lower than the Health Information Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.18
-
-
Debt per share
$0.84
EBITDA per share
$3.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
OMCL
P/E Ratio:
79.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
858.44
P/E ratio is -90.73% lower than main peers & is -78.23% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $544.52
OMCL is -81.70% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.68
Price to sales ratio is -51.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.11
Price to free cash flow: 45.71
Price to free cash flow ratio is -79.07% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
85.51%
Net income growth rate is -95.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
32.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.41%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.86% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.46
Interest coverage ratio is 115.49% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
9.46%
Annual debt growth is -77% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.449
Statistical significance of correlation:
OMCL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.376
Stock price is 19.24% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.376
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.017
Kurtosis
6.68
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.251
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OMCL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.25%
Operating profit margin is -135.02% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Effective Tax Rate:
-23.90%
Effective tax rate is -220.68% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -305.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is -295.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0.82
Current ratio is -85.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
51.2
Cash conversion cycle is 4.05% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
22.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
315.5K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
39.9K
Each employee generates -197% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.9K
Each employee generates -124% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.2K
Each employee generates -165% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
354.5K
Each employee generates -165% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 7.92%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -160.47% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
OMCL
HEALTHEQUITY, INC. (XNAS:HQY)
SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRPT)
INTEGRA LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:IART)
LHC GROUP, INC. (XNAS:LHCG)
IMMUNITYBIO, INC. (XNAS:IBRX)
STAAR SURGICAL COMPANY (XNAS:STAA)
ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:ACHC)
TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TGTX)
1LIFE HEALTHCARE, INC (XNAS:ONEM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.20B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
616.59M
582.42M
84.67M
-
422.77M
-
-
507.44M
-
4.67M
88.89M
151.62M
74.98M
71.94M
58.06M
- 13877.00K
71.94M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.43M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4858.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
16.21M
Change in Working Capital :
- 62781.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 4073.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.79M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 15996.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 11489.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3392.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
265.01M
11.10M
276.11M
290.47M
137.06M
71.97M
775.60M
120.27M
740.43M
363.54M
19.05M
16.05M
87.65M
1.35B
-
2.12B
71.65M
576.08M
5.49M
176.76M
126.53M
951.01M
37.27M
7.35M
96.84M
-
1.05B
54.00K
393.29M
- 10962.0K
692.36M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.12B
1.07B
2.12B
30.15M
613.35M
348.3M
-
- 3852.00K
- 18733.00K
-
-
- 52210.00K
-
20.09M
- 32119.00K
- 411.00K
- 67259.00K
288.36M
355.62M
- 15996.00K
- 15341.00K
- 31337.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OMCL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$107.29
$457.21
$489.77
$524.64
$562.00