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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (XNYS:OHI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OHI
Name:
OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS, INC. (XNYS:OHI)
Sector:
127.54M
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Mr. C. Taylor Pickett
Total Employees:
70
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 51.55% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS, INC.(OHI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.28
One Month Price Target:
$32.45
Six Month Price Target :
$33.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.99
This week:
$27.16
This month :
$22.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
234.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
49.76%
-28.27%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.92
$38.07
$21.64
$26.49
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.46
$28.06
$29.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OHI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.28%
Comparison:
OHI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -272.25% lower than the industry
& is -87.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OHI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.37%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 909.79% above industry average
Classification:
OHI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
OHI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.47%
Weekly Volatility:
7.75%
Monthly Volatility:
15.50%
Yearly Volatility:
53.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.99%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.10%
Weekly VaR:
-15.87%
Monthly VaR:
-31.74%
How Much Can the price of
OHI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.29
This translates to price declining to:
$4.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OHI is a 124.05% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.34% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OHI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.588
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.832
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.4
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.8
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.012
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.077
Beta is -13.24% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is -9.37% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.051
Alpha is -47.99% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -323% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OHI
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -6.48% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.29%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.29%
WACC is -14.58% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.83
Annual revenue growth rate is 377.77% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -73.75% lower than the REIT�Healthcare Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 1.95%
Equity growth rate per share is -109.85% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$22.53
EBITDA per share
$4.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
OHI
P/E Ratio:
17.62
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.94
P/E ratio is -44.83% lower than main peers & is -89.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $295.82
OHI is -89.09% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $42.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $28.06
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.28
Price to sales ratio is 12.33% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.83
Price to free cash flow: 13.42
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
25.11%
Net income growth rate is -148.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 35.99%
Dividend yeild: 8.30%
Previous Dividend: $0.67
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.67
Previous Dividend: $2.68
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.67
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.67
2021-11-04--$0.67
2021-04-30--$0.67
2022-02-04--$0.67
2021-07-30--$0.67
2021-02-05--$0.67
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
134.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
131.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
52.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
51.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -1.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.37
Interest coverage ratio is 134.83% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.63%
Annual debt growth is -80% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.25%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.492
Statistical significance of correlation:
OHI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is -14.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.002
Kurtosis
72.153
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.416
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OHI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
395%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
51.99%
Operating profit margin is 200.21% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
395%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.90%
Effective tax rate is -76.42% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.39%
Return on equity (ROE) is 220.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is 154.10% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
2.78
Current ratio is -19.35% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
286.8
Cash conversion cycle is 1108.76% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
14.8M
Each employee generates 50% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.6M
Each employee generates 133% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.4M
Each employee generates 207% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 94% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
118.8M
Each employee generates 94% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OHI
Corticeira Amorim SGPS SA (XLIS:COR)
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:STWD)
BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (XNYS:BRX)
WEWORK INC. (XNYS:WE)
AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:ACC)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�33%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.13M
1.03B
-
64.86M
64.86M
-
420.50M
485.36M
-
234.23M
339.92M
1.02B
539.86M
446.37M
457.34M
4.11M
446.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
82.75M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.86M
Change in Working Capital :
- 46615.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 26049.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 22498.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 105951.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
132.20M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4667.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 100225.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
491.25M
-
491.25M
1.11B
-
96.30M
1.70B
-
651.02M
-
699.18M
-
6.96B
8.31B
-
10.01B
-
354.89M
-
-
256.39M
611.28M
5.27B
-
5.27B
-
5.88B
23.82M
- 2513514.00K
6.3M
6.40B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
498.49M
3.92B
9.80B
-
5.63B
5.1B
56.19M
226.04M
177.34M
- 66896.00K
1.15M
- 27321.00K
- 160641.00K
414.95M
161.24M
- 407.00K
470.37M
494.78M
24.41M
132.20M
- 4667.00K
127.54M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OHI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.37
$47.16
$50.12
$53.27
$56.61