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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:OLLI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OLLI
Name:
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
Sector:
30.66M
Industry:
Discount Stores
CEO:
Mr. John Swygert
Total Employees:
4,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -195.08% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC.(OLLI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DISCOUNT STORES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
54.95
One Month Price Target:
$55.2
Six Month Price Target :
$56.47
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$57.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$55.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$51.19
This week:
$46.54
This month :
$38.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
62.59M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.66%
-20.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.41
$64.45
$37.49
$45.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$61.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.15
$48.02
$49.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OLLI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.41%
Comparison:
OLLI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -82.14% lower than the industry
& is -81.84% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OLLI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.45%
Yearly returns:
13.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -59.20% below industry average
Classification:
OLLI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
OLLI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.34%
Weekly Volatility:
7.48%
Monthly Volatility:
14.96%
Yearly Volatility:
51.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.62% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.85%
Weekly VaR:
-15.31%
Monthly VaR:
-30.62%
How Much Can the price of
OLLI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$40.21
This translates to price declining to:
$8.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OLLI is a 116.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.13% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 50.23% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OLLI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.675
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.955
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.696
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.879
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.681
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.628
Beta is 31.28% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.701
Beta is 17.62% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.19%
Sustainable growth rate is -32.19% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.034
Alpha is -162.10% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -213% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OLLI
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is 10.64% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.04%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.03%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.03%
WACC is 17.72% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.28
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.48
Annual revenue growth rate is 71.61% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -78.83% lower than the Discount Stores industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.37
EBITDA per share
$2.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
OLLI
P/E Ratio:
36.79
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.22
P/E ratio is 17.83% higher than main peers & is 58.61% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $41.52
OLLI is 32.33% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.01
Price to sales ratio is 93.78% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.48
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.36% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
80.24%
Net income growth rate is 62.39% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1197.38
Interest coverage ratio is 355.16% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
48296.25%
Annual debt growth is 597% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.06%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.461
Statistical significance of correlation:
OLLI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.493
Stock price is -6.56% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.493
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.093
Kurtosis
4.628
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.36
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OLLI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.82%
Operating profit margin is 72.70% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
150%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.58%
Effective tax rate is -11.02% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is -65.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.62%
Return on assets (ROA) is -27.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
3.27
Current ratio is 149.42% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1.8
Cash conversion cycle is -103.55% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
363.2K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
37.5K
Each employee generates 38% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
24.4K
Each employee generates 58% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.5K
Each employee generates 509% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
257.5K
Each employee generates 509% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OLLI
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
KRISPY KREME, INC. (XNAS:DNUT)
HOSTESS BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:TWNK)
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (XNAS:GO)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENT)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.71B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.07B
639.96M
-
-
459.52M
-
22.02M
481.54M
-
147.00K
25.70M
176.02M
150.52M
114.76M
150.17M
35.42M
114.76M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.86M
Differed Income Tax :
753.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.02M
Change in Working Capital :
- 23766.00K
Accounts Receivables:
258.00K
Other Working Capital:
578.23M
Other Non-Cash Items:
37.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
40.12M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9463.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
472.17M
-
472.17M
363.00K
355.19M
5.53M
833.25M
532.47M
444.85M
230.56M
-
-
2.37M
1.21B
-
2.04B
90.38M
61.92M
34.06M
10.35M
92.38M
255.02M
336.01M
4.00K
401.83M
-
656.85M
66.00K
781.49M
- 104236.0K
709.33M
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.55B
1.39B
2.04B
-
397.92M
- 74243.0K
-
51.00K
- 9412.00K
- 191.00K
-
- 9579.00K
-
4.10M
- 5670.00K
-
25.04M
472.17M
447.13M
40.12M
- 9463.00K
30.66M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OLLI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$67.90
$71.66
$75.63
$79.83
$84.25