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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Olin Corporation (XNYS:OLN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OLN
Name:
Olin Corporation (XNYS:OLN)
Sector:
306.20M
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. John Fischer
Total Employees:
7,750
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1623.76% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OLIN CORPORATION(OLN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.41
One Month Price Target:
$53.8
Six Month Price Target :
$55.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$49.33
This week:
$44.29
This month :
$35.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
145.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.66%
-17.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.31
$63.43
$34.51
$43.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.65
$46.25
$48.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OLN
Sharpe Ratio:
5.95%
Comparison:
OLN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 180.83% higher than the industry
& ratio is 160.98% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OLN
Daily returns:
0.24%
Weekly returns:
1.18%
Monthly returns:
4.74%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 131.49% above industry average
Classification:
OLN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
OLN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.84%
Weekly Volatility:
8.58%
Monthly Volatility:
17.15%
Yearly Volatility:
59.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.64%
Weekly VaR:
-17.08%
Monthly VaR:
-34.16%
How Much Can the price of
OLN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.73
This translates to price declining to:
$8.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OLN is a 141.12% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 106.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OLN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.823
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.165
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.703
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.981
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.016
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.275
Beta is 1.96% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is 11.67% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
53.02%
Sustainable growth rate is 83.55% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.448
Alpha is 233.39% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2853% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OLN
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 8.36% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.44%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.44%
WACC is 24.03% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$65.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.78
Annual revenue growth rate is 1886.58% above the industry average
EPS:
$8.91
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.55
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.34%
Equity growth rate per share is -103.23% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$19.80
EBITDA per share
$18.21
Valuation Analysis Today of
OLN
P/E Ratio:
5.62
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.7
P/E ratio is -16.08% lower than main peers & is -85.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $333.76
OLN is -84.00% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.53
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.82
Price to sales ratio is -70.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.78
Price to free cash flow: 5.06
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
312.01%
Net income growth rate is -664.36% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.13%
Dividend yeild: 1.50%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.80
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.20
2021-11-09--$0.20
2021-05-07--$0.20
2022-03-03--$0.20
2021-08-09--$0.20
2021-03-01--$0.20
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
103.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
105.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.42%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.08% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.91
Interest coverage ratio is -57.62% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-25.34%
Annual debt growth is -107% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.558
Statistical significance of correlation:
OLN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is -3.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.06
Kurtosis
5.138
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.294
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OLN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
104%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.33%
Operating profit margin is -107.57% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
104%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.66%
Effective tax rate is -1.67% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
51.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is 80.57% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is 542.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.49
Current ratio is -44.37% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
27.4
Cash conversion cycle is -55.64% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates 63% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
340.9K
Each employee generates 245% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
186.6K
Each employee generates 487% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
39.5K
Each employee generates -206% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
791.8K
Each employee generates -206% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OLN
THE SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO COMPANY (XNYS:SMG)
Gerdau SA (XNYS:GGB)
Gold Fields Limited (XNYS:GFI)
SIBANYE STILLWATER LIMITED (XNYS:SBSW)
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD (XNYS:AU)
HUNTSMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:HUN)
Ternium SA (XNYS:TX)
CEMEX PUBLICLY TRADED STOCK CORPORATION WITH VARIABLE CAPITAL (XNYS:CX)
Braskem SA (XNYS:BAK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.45B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.00B
2.45B
-
-
414.30M
-
- 1400.00K
412.90M
500.00K
296.40M
589.00M
2.64B
2.02B
1.45B
1.76B
310.10M
1.45B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
151.70M
Differed Income Tax :
7.90M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.10M
Change in Working Capital :
- 193500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
88.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8700.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
353.50M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
197.90M
-
197.90M
1.18B
909.20M
148.90M
2.44B
3.19B
1.42B
314.50M
-
95.30M
1.12B
6.14B
-
8.57B
791.50M
276.60M
184.90M
-
567.00M
1.64B
2.87B
703.90M
4.15B
-
5.79B
151.80M
1.38B
- 461200.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.41B
2.79B
8.57B
-
3.15B
3.0B
-
- 47300.00K
- 47300.00K
- 200.00K
-
- 263200.00K
- 30800.00K
5.20M
- 289000.00K
200.00K
17.40M
197.90M
180.50M
353.50M
- 47300.00K
306.20M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OLN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$63.73
$69.30
$75.35
$81.94
$89.10