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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (XNAS:ODFL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ODFL
Name:
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. (XNAS:ODFL)
Sector:
295.01M
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. Greg Gantt
Total Employees:
23,663
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -137.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.(ODFL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
271.93
One Month Price Target:
$273.55
Six Month Price Target :
$281.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$291.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$271.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$273.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$259.53
This week:
$244.19
This month :
$216.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
30.43B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
111.77M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.79%
-12.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$329.39
$302.40
$214.47
$241.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$293.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$287.86
$250.17
$256.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ODFL
Sharpe Ratio:
5.77%
Comparison:
ODFL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 80.13% higher than the industry
& ratio is 153.20% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ODFL
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.70%
Monthly returns:
2.82%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 7.47% above industry average
Classification:
ODFL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.83
Statistical test of Returns:
ODFL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.29%
Weekly Volatility:
5.12%
Monthly Volatility:
10.24%
Yearly Volatility:
35.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -11.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.56%
Weekly VaR:
-10.20%
Monthly VaR:
-20.40%
How Much Can the price of
ODFL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-70.66%
This translates to price declining to:
$227.29
This translates to price declining to:
$79.77
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ODFL is a 43.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 23.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.68% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ODFL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.804
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.137
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.041
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.813
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.61
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.126
Beta is -5.60% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is -22.98% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.52%
Sustainable growth rate is 22.48% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.234
Alpha is 23.97% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1490% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ODFL
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -17.24% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.02%
WACC is 4.10% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$50.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.68
Annual revenue growth rate is -50.23% below industry average
EPS:
$9.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
20.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -47.67% lower than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.99
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 131.05%
Equity growth rate per share is 2.46% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.89
EBITDA per share
$16.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
ODFL
P/E Ratio:
25.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.47
P/E ratio is -19.89% lower than main peers & is 52.48% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $161.89
ODFL is 67.97% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $111.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.81
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.4
Price to sales ratio is -70.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.68
Price to free cash flow: 45.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is 4.37% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
81.84%
Net income growth rate is 1335.19% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.01%
Dividend yeild: 0.37%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.34
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 8.38%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.30
2021-11-30--$0.20
2021-06-01--$0.20
2022-03-01--$0.30
2021-08-31--$0.20
2021-03-02--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -82.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-4.63%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.12%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1383.39
Interest coverage ratio is 843.64% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.68
Statistical significance of correlation:
ODFL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is 50.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
4.583
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.1
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ODFL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.15%
Operating profit margin is -102.41% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.55%
Effective tax rate is 13.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
32.39%
Return on equity (ROE) is 94.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
24.03%
Return on assets (ROA) is 253.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.21
Current ratio is -47.02% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-6.8
Cash conversion cycle is -123.35% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
237.8K
Each employee generates -10% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
75.6K
Each employee generates 49% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
48.0K
Each employee generates 104% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.5K
Each employee generates 130% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
145.4K
Each employee generates 130% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ODFL
CINTAS CORPORATION (XNAS:CTAS)
Fastenal Company (XNAS:FAST)
VERISK ANALYTICS, INC. (XNAS:VRSK)
COPART, INC. (XNAS:CPRT)
PAYCHEX, INC. (XNAS:PAYX)
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:RYAAY)
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC (XNAS:EXPD)
J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:JBHT)
BNGOW
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.70B
1.92B
-
232.97M
232.97M
-
162.43M
395.39M
629.00K
1.29M
263.25M
1.79B
1.53B
1.13B
1.52B
389.42M
1.13B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
67.34M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
14.72M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.91M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
388.73M
Investments in PP&E:
- 93713.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 75162.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
262.12M
279.18M
541.31M
681.39M
-
58.26M
1.28B
3.23B
-
-
-
-
216.39M
3.44B
-
4.72B
117.85M
-
83.29M
-
460.75M
578.60M
99.95M
292.08M
640.75M
-
1.22B
11.38M
3.36B
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.10B
3.50B
4.72B
-
99.95M
- 162171.0K
49.97M
10.46M
- 108454.00K
-
-
- 338352.00K
- 34196.00K
- 108165.00K
- 480713.00K
-
- 200442.00K
262.12M
462.56M
388.73M
- 93713.00K
295.01M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ODFL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$348.93
$373.86
$400.57
$429.19
$459.85