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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:OLPX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OLPX
Name:
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLPX)
Sector:
71.48M
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Total Employees:
106
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -309.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC.(OLPX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
12.44
One Month Price Target:
$12.57
Six Month Price Target :
$13.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$12.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$12.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.31
This week:
$9.9
This month :
$7.36
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
649.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.54%
-12.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.72
$15.37
$7.16
$9.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.61
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.11
$10.26
$10.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OLPX
Sharpe Ratio:
-4.71%
Comparison:
OLPX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -264.77% lower than the industry
& is -306.77% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OLPX
Daily returns:
-0.20%
Weekly returns:
-0.98%
Monthly returns:
-3.92%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -234.71% below industry average
Classification:
OLPX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.42
Statistical test of Returns:
OLPX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.35%
Weekly Volatility:
9.72%
Monthly Volatility:
19.44%
Yearly Volatility:
67.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.12%
Weekly VaR:
-20.40%
Monthly VaR:
-40.80%
How Much Can the price of
OLPX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.67
This translates to price declining to:
$1.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OLPX is a 187.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 146.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.66% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OLPX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.955
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.155
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
-0.01
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is 26.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
74.97%
Sustainable growth rate is 125.78% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.626
Alpha is -384.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3984% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OLPX
Equity cost of capital:
0.155
Equity cost of capital is 20.12% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.93%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.93%
WACC is 52.65% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
13.71
Annual revenue growth rate is 902.16% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
49.48%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 40.49% higher than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -294.99% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.01
EBITDA per share
$0.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
OLPX
P/E Ratio:
31.24
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is 45.22% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $7.53
OLPX is 65.24% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.29
Price to sales ratio is 226.74% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
13.71
Price to free cash flow: 34.51
Price to free cash flow ratio is 340.75% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
255.53%
Net income growth rate is -153.99% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
111.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
88.57%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
33.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.8
Interest coverage ratio is -64.47% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.23%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 54.13%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.087
Statistical significance of correlation:
OLPX does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is -81.71% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
0.268
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.023
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OLPX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
314%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
56.68%
Operating profit margin is 771.88% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
314%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.93%
Effective tax rate is -11.61% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
37.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2540.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is 52.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
4.11
Current ratio is 117.86% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
102.6
Cash conversion cycle is 58.59% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.77%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
5.7M
Each employee generates 678% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
3.4M
Each employee generates 1326% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.1M
Each employee generates 1308% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
674.3K
Each employee generates 1531% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
11.5M
Each employee generates 1531% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OLPX
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
607.51M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
132.28M
475.24M
-
-
90.01M
-
37.26M
127.26M
-
41.54M
47.64M
365.52M
344.36M
221.25M
276.34M
55.09M
221.25M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.11M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1712.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 25359.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 28135.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
23.27M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
71.97M
Investments in PP&E:
- 68.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
143.35M
-
143.35M
68.91M
117.47M
8.20M
337.93M
740.00K
168.30M
1.03B
-
10.06M
6.36M
1.22B
-
1.55B
29.01M
6.75M
-
5.00M
41.41M
82.17M
658.32M
225.12M
883.44M
-
965.61M
648.00K
282.75M
-
305.62M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
259.54M
589.02M
1.55B
-
665.07M
521.7M
-
- 421.00K
- 489.00K
- 777005.00K
-
-
-
662.48M
- 114521.00K
-
- 43041.00K
143.35M
186.39M
71.97M
- 489.00K
71.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OLPX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.68
$15.34
$17.21
$19.30
$21.65