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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Oge Energy Corp. (XNYS:OGE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OGE
Name:
OGE ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:OGE)
Sector:
- 161200.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Electric
CEO:
Mr. Sean Trauschke
Total Employees:
2,185
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.42% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OGE ENERGY CORP.(OGE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED ELECTRIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.66
One Month Price Target:
$40.81
Six Month Price Target :
$41.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.04
This week:
$37.04
This month :
$33.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
200.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.2%
-10.7%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.18
$44.75
$33.14
$36.57
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$43.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.91
$37.67
$38.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OGE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.08%
Comparison:
OGE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -92.94% lower than the industry
& is -96.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OGE
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.05%
Monthly returns:
0.21%
Yearly returns:
7.85%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -68.02% below industry average
Classification:
OGE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
OGE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.95%
Weekly Volatility:
4.35%
Monthly Volatility:
8.70%
Yearly Volatility:
30.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.98%
Weekly VaR:
-8.91%
Monthly VaR:
-17.82%
How Much Can the price of
OGE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-61.72%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.30
This translates to price declining to:
$15.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OGE is a 25.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 7.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OGE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.821
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.161
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.345
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.484
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.644
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.641
Beta is 1.33% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.5
Beta is 30.00% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.01%
Sustainable growth rate is 14.95% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.051
Alpha is -499.10% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -324% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OGE
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is 15.62% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.04%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.40%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.40%
WACC is 5.20% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -5117.50% below industry average
EPS:
$4.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -411.28% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Electric industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.06%
Equity growth rate per share is 224.86% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$22.46
EBITDA per share
$8.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
OGE
P/E Ratio:
8.82
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.89
P/E ratio is -44.50% lower than main peers & is -68.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $133.18
OGE is -69.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $44.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $23.36
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.12
Price to sales ratio is 7.34% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.91
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
72.85%
Net income growth rate is -2573.10% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.54%
Dividend yeild: 4.02%
Previous Dividend: $0.41
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.41
Previous Dividend: $1.63
Expected next dividend best case: $0.42
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.40
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.40
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.57%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 24/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 23/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-08--$0.41
2021-10-08--$0.41
2021-04-09--$0.40
2022-01-07--$0.41
2021-07-09--$0.40
2021-01-08--$0.40
Dividend growth rate is -157.00% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
105.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
121.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.35% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.9
Interest coverage ratio is 323.44% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
38.83%
Annual debt growth is -15% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.632
Statistical significance of correlation:
OGE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.597
Stock price is 5.96% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.597
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.072
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.082
Kurtosis
8.623
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.074
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OGE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
167%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.15%
Operating profit margin is 90.40% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
167%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.15%
Effective tax rate is -19.79% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is 148.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is 218.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.49
Current ratio is -79.55% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
1.3
Cash conversion cycle is -98.58% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.24%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
793.4K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
441.2K
Each employee generates 8% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 73.8K
Each employee generates 124% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.7M
Each employee generates 124% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OGE
PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:PNW)
NEXTERA ENERGY PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:NEP)
EBR-B
HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC. (OTCM:HNPIY)
BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE CORPORATION (XNYS:BEPC)
CMS-PB
IDACORP, INC. (XNYS:IDA)
UGI CORPORATION (XNYS:UGI)
BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:BEP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.61B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.51B
1.11B
-
-
-
-
528.40M
528.40M
-
159.00M
424.70M
1.73B
578.70M
964.10M
1.15B
185.70M
964.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
107.40M
Differed Income Tax :
47.50M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 37500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
400.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 340300.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
58.90M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
51.40M
-
51.40M
410.20M
183.80M
12.00M
657.40M
10.09B
-
-
1.07B
-
1.28B
12.44B
-
13.09B
300.90M
731.50M
39.90M
81.50M
228.90M
1.34B
4.50B
1.59B
7.49B
-
8.83B
1.13B
3.15B
- 17000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.03B
4.26B
13.09B
-
5.23B
5.2B
-
- 220400.00K
- 220400.00K
-
-
-
- 82300.00K
243.80M
161.50M
-
161.50M
-
-
58.90M
- 220100.00K
- 161200.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OGE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$42.64
$64.65
$67.47
$70.42
$73.49