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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Office Properties Income Trust (XNAS:OPI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OPI
Name:
OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST (XNAS:OPI)
Sector:
50.27M
Industry:
REIT�Office
CEO:
Mr. David Blackman
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST(OPI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�OFFICE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.56
One Month Price Target:
$17.67
Six Month Price Target :
$18.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.88
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.54
This week:
$15.27
This month :
$12.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
850.87M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.37%
-21.37%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.32
$20.18
$12.80
$14.94
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.02
$15.63
$16.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OPI
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.32%
Comparison:
OPI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.34% higher than the industry
& is -201.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OPI
Daily returns:
-0.06%
Weekly returns:
-0.28%
Monthly returns:
-1.13%
Yearly returns:
-13.59%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.55% below industry average
Classification:
OPI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.31
Statistical test of Returns:
OPI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.81%
Weekly Volatility:
6.29%
Monthly Volatility:
12.58%
Yearly Volatility:
43.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.83%
Weekly VaR:
-13.04%
Monthly VaR:
-26.08%
How Much Can the price of
OPI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-90.34%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.40
This translates to price declining to:
$1.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OPI is a 84.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.96% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OPI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.7
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.99
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.392
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.642
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.977
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.26
Beta is -11.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.988
Beta is 12.89% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.243
Alpha is 3.40% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1547% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OPI
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is 8.80% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.58
Annual revenue growth rate is 871.56% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.23
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -67.99%
Equity growth rate per share is 620.57% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$5.18
Valuation Analysis Today of
OPI
P/E Ratio:
41.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.66
P/E ratio is 75.48% higher than main peers & is -32.65% lower than the industry
-
OPI is -123.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $30.38
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.38
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.47
Price to sales ratio is -77.48% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.58
Price to free cash flow: 4.06
Price to free cash flow ratio is -59.70% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-80.74%
Net income growth rate is -260.47% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 12.53%
Previous Dividend: $0.55
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.55
Previous Dividend: $2.20
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-22--$0.55
2021-10-22--$0.55
2021-04-23--$0.55
2022-01-21--$0.55
2021-07-23--$0.55
2021-01-22--$0.55
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
183.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-6.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
64.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -128.38% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.26
Interest coverage ratio is -159.67% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
17.23%
Annual debt growth is -472% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.538
Statistical significance of correlation:
OPI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.626
Stock price is -14.04% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.626
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.015
Kurtosis
11.798
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.077
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OPI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
350%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-8.66%
Operating profit margin is -143.67% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
350%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.62%
Effective tax rate is -111.15% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is -193.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.42%
Return on assets (ROA) is -151.25% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.8x
Current Ratio:
1.61
Current ratio is -182.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OPI
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMTN)
NYMTP
NYMTO
GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:GOODN)
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTL)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMT)
DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST (XNAS:DHC)
CREATIVE MEDIA & COMMUNITY TRUST CORPORATION. (XNAS:CMCTP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
579.31M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
72.46M
506.85M
-
40.11M
40.11M
-
369.54M
409.65M
2.00K
111.03M
198.85M
250.78M
- 50151.00K
- 59447.00K
- 56149.00K
347.00K
- 59447.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.97M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
58.66M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
132.67M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 19950.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
50.27M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1070.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
97.66M
35.01M
132.67M
-
-
-
132.67M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.07B
4.20B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.74B
2.74B
-
- 1134351.00K
-
2.59B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
482.11M
1.46B
4.20B
-
-
- 97656.0K
-
- 7714.00K
- 8784.00K
-
-
-
-
- 26939.00K
- 26939.00K
-
14.54M
99.06M
84.52M
50.27M
-
50.27M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OPI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.94
$20.36
$21.89
$23.53
$25.29