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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Oceanfirst Financial Corp. (XNAS:OCFC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OCFC
Name:
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
Sector:
49.94M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Maher
Total Employees:
874
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 10.16% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP.(OCFC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.24
One Month Price Target:
$19.33
Six Month Price Target :
$19.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.3
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.18
This week:
$16.87
This month :
$14.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.35%
-15.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.16
$21.92
$14.32
$16.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.72
$17.28
$17.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OCFC
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.24%
Comparison:
OCFC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -119.31% lower than the industry
& is -110.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OCFC
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.05%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -94.54% below industry average
Classification:
OCFC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.25
Statistical test of Returns:
OCFC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.68%
Weekly Volatility:
6.00%
Monthly Volatility:
12.01%
Yearly Volatility:
41.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.03% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.51%
Weekly VaR:
-12.32%
Monthly VaR:
-24.65%
How Much Can the price of
OCFC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-85.38%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.05
This translates to price declining to:
$2.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OCFC is a 73.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 49.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.02% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OCFC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.614
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.868
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.72
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.469
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.679
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.789
Beta is 3.88% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -14.95% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.23%
Sustainable growth rate is -86.49% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.082
Alpha is -804.08% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -520% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OCFC
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -10.12% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.70%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.45%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.45%
WACC is -23.58% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -88.84% below industry average
EPS:
$1.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -98.44% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.27
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.76%
Equity growth rate per share is -48.98% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$4.56
EBITDA per share
$3.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
OCFC
P/E Ratio:
11.66
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.91
P/E ratio is 6.88% higher than main peers & is -6.03% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.72
OCFC is -7.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.24
Price to sales ratio is -24.24% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.75
Price to free cash flow: 8.46
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
21.73%
Net income growth rate is -60.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.66%
Dividend yeild: 3.53%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.68
Expected next dividend best case: $0.26
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 17.52%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.17
2021-11-05--$0.17
2021-07-29--$0.44
2022-02-04--$0.17
2021-08-06--$0.17
2021-05-07--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is -25.63% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
3.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.59
Interest coverage ratio is 574.27% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-32.10%
Annual debt growth is -10235% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.442
Statistical significance of correlation:
OCFC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -11.76% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.034
Kurtosis
6.132
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.284
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OCFC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.22%
Effective tax rate is 3.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.79%
Return on equity (ROE) is -43.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.85%
Return on assets (ROA) is -63.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 28.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.16%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
401.7K
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
206.1K
Each employee generates -9% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
118.0K
Each employee generates -17% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
57.1K
Each employee generates -31% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.7M
Each employee generates -31% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OCFC
BROOKLINE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:BRKL)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
S & T BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:STBA)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
BPFH
CITY HOLDING COMPANY (XNAS:CHCO)
SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:SBSI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
351.12M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
151.80M
154.15M
2.35M
-
-
348.20M
32.24M
15.33M
180.17M
-
103.14M
132.60M
29.46M
103.14M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.98M
Differed Income Tax :
- 30.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.22M
Change in Working Capital :
21.65M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 2103.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.06M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
57.64M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7708.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 66506.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
210.92M
546.47M
757.39M
33.35M
-
-
-
126.77M
500.32M
17.01M
1.74B
-
-
2.38B
14.55B
12.16B
-
-
-
-
-
-
269.40M
-
269.40M
10.92B
10.65B
612.00K
456.25M
- 15170.0K
1.08B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.52B
12.16B
2.29B
269.40M
58.5M
127.95M
- 478425.00K
- 424685.00K
- 35026.00K
-
- 2144.00K
- 10997.00K
401.60M
353.43M
-
- 13608.00K
211.18M
224.78M
57.64M
- 7708.00K
49.94M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OCFC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$22.13
$23.35
$24.63
$25.99
$27.42