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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (XNYS:OXY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
OXY
Name:
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:OXY)
Sector:
2.38B
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Ms. Vicki Hollub
Total Employees:
11,678
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4.29% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION(OXY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
68.77
One Month Price Target:
$69.48
Six Month Price Target :
$73.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$77.35
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$68.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$69.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.7
This week:
$52.97
This month :
$37.17
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
62.30B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
931.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.7%
-53.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$101.52
$86.28
$36.02
$51.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$81.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.06
$56.18
$59.48
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
OXY
Sharpe Ratio:
4.30%
Comparison:
OXY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -6.49% lower than the industry
& ratio is 88.55% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
OXY
Daily returns:
0.23%
Weekly returns:
1.14%
Monthly returns:
4.57%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -10.66% below industry average
Classification:
OXY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.48
Statistical test of Returns:
OXY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.11%
Weekly Volatility:
11.43%
Monthly Volatility:
22.87%
Yearly Volatility:
79.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.61% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.27%
Weekly VaR:
-22.97%
Monthly VaR:
-45.95%
How Much Can the price of
OXY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.64
This translates to price declining to:
$10.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
OXY is a 224.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 177.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.20% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
OXY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.971
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.374
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.173
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.027
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.159
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.854
Beta is 0.08% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -7.78% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.390
Alpha is -12.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2483% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
OXY
Equity cost of capital:
0.159
Equity cost of capital is -6.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.02%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.87%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.63%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.63%
WACC is -16.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$31.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.57
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.01% below industry average
EPS:
$6.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.18
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -70.70%
Equity growth rate per share is -156.65% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.37
EBITDA per share
$20.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
OXY
P/E Ratio:
6.74
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.36
P/E ratio is -53.04% lower than main peers & is -83.99% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $277.10
OXY is -75.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.21
Price to sales ratio is -55.15% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.57
Price to free cash flow: 6.76
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-53.40%
Net income growth rate is -107.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.02%
Dividend yeild: 0.41%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.13
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 110.13%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.13
2021-12-09--$0.01
2021-06-09--$0.01
2022-03-09--$0.13
2021-09-09--$0.01
2021-03-09--$0.01
Dividend growth rate is 166.15% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
106.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
101.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
33.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.15
Interest coverage ratio is 53.22% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-18.53%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.98%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.485
Statistical significance of correlation:
OXY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 23.04% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.061
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.182
Kurtosis
21.155
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.906
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
OXY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
190%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
32.27%
Operating profit margin is -2445.35% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
190%
Effective Tax Rate:
45.09%
Effective tax rate is 127.83% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.68%
Return on equity (ROE) is 236.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is 318.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.16
Current ratio is -42.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-14.5
Cash conversion cycle is -120.54% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.5M
Each employee generates -69% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.7M
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
611.7K
Each employee generates 46% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
203.9K
Each employee generates -321% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.5M
Each employee generates -321% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
OXY
MPLX COM UNT (XNYS:MPLX)
ENERGY TRANSFER UNT (XNYS:ET)
DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:DVN)
THE WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:WMB)
ONEOK, INC. (XNYS:OKE)
Cenovus Energy Inc. (XNYS:CVE)
Ecopetrol SA (XNYS:EC)
HESS CORPORATION (XNYS:HES)
PHILLIPS 66 (XNYS:PSX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�63%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
29.01B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
14.64B
14.37B
-
-
893.00M
-
3.22B
4.11B
91.00M
1.59B
7.90B
19.32B
9.36B
7.14B
5.97B
2.69B
7.14B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.64B
Differed Income Tax :
- 2240000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 1040000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.24B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.91B
-
1.91B
5.43B
1.41B
1.31B
10.06B
59.92B
-
-
3.02B
-
1.23B
64.16B
-
74.22B
4.66B
680.00M
-
-
3.36B
8.70B
26.42B
9.39B
40.62B
-
49.32B
217.00M
9.03B
- 180000.0K
15.84B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
18.75B
24.91B
74.22B
-
27.10B
25.2B
-
- 662000.00K
- 662000.00K
- 3259000.00K
27.00M
- 36000.00K
- 216000.00K
3.56B
79.00M
-
- 852000.00K
1.95B
2.80B
3.24B
- 858000.00K
2.38B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
OXY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$83.06
$93.42
$105.07
$118.17
$132.90