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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nv5 Global, Inc. (XNAS:NVEE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NVEE
Name:
NV5 Global, Inc. (XNAS:NVEE)
Sector:
40.47M
Industry:
Engineering & Construction
CEO:
Mr. Dickerson Wright
Total Employees:
3,428
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 32.28% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NV5 GLOBAL, INC.(NVEE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
135.06
One Month Price Target:
$135.86
Six Month Price Target :
$139.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$144.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$134.58
Price Upper limit ($) :
$136.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$126.1
This week:
$115.03
This month :
$95.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.04%
-22.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$176.54
$157.03
$93.58
$113.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$150.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$146.51
$119.39
$123.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NVEE
Sharpe Ratio:
6.17%
Comparison:
NVEE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 55.38% higher than the industry
& ratio is 170.79% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NVEE
Daily returns:
0.21%
Weekly returns:
1.07%
Monthly returns:
4.29%
Yearly returns:
37.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 37.38% above industry average
Classification:
NVEE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
NVEE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.33%
Weekly Volatility:
7.45%
Monthly Volatility:
14.91%
Yearly Volatility:
51.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.99%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -10.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.63%
Weekly VaR:
-14.83%
Monthly VaR:
-29.66%
How Much Can the price of
NVEE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$102.98
This translates to price declining to:
$20.26
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NVEE is a 109.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.09% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NVEE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.719
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.016
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.933
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.86
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.19
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.129
Beta is -6.81% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.325
Beta is -20.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.81%
Sustainable growth rate is -50.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.411
Alpha is 62.89% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2619% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NVEE
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -15.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.18%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.75%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.75%
WACC is 7.94% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$47.83
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.28
Annual revenue growth rate is 23.83% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 40.22% higher than the Engineering & Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.57
-
-
Debt per share
$6.94
EBITDA per share
$7.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
NVEE
P/E Ratio:
37.99
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
105.57
P/E ratio is -64.01% lower than main peers & is 31.00% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $96.57
NVEE is 39.85% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.82
Price to sales ratio is -54.22% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.28
Price to free cash flow: 24.27
Price to free cash flow ratio is -38.19% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-27.91%
Net income growth rate is 287.12% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
16.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.19
Interest coverage ratio is -0.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.98%
Annual debt growth is -109% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.555
Statistical significance of correlation:
NVEE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is 6.15% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.002
Kurtosis
9.597
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.249
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NVEE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
201%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.59%
Operating profit margin is -169.71% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
201%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.36%
Effective tax rate is 17.66% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.00% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 27.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.02
Current ratio is -28.31% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
9.6
Cash conversion cycle is -79.74% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.52%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
217.0K
Each employee generates -64% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
34.1K
Each employee generates -9% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.7K
Each employee generates -2348% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.8K
Each employee generates -283% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
190.1K
Each employee generates -283% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NVEE
HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HA)
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
GOLAR LNG LIMITED (XNAS:GLNG)
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
Oxford Square Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXSQL)
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
ENERGY RECOVERY, INC. (XNAS:ERII)
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
743.77M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
369.22M
374.55M
-
262.76M
262.76M
-
40.45M
303.21M
-
4.84M
45.60M
116.94M
71.34M
50.31M
66.51M
16.20M
50.31M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.17M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1903.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.79M
Change in Working Capital :
19.92M
Accounts Receivables:
23.21M
Other Working Capital:
- 5104.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
46.52M
Investments in PP&E:
- 6044.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 326.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
81.95M
-
81.95M
217.62M
-
8.76M
308.32M
78.20M
389.95M
180.08M
-
-
3.30M
651.53M
-
959.85M
48.13M
31.17M
-
25.61M
47.96M
152.86M
107.93M
36.08M
167.49M
-
320.35M
155.00K
181.45M
-
457.89M
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
672.42M
639.50M
959.85M
-
139.10M
57.1M
-
-
- 6370.00K
- 4581.00K
-
-
-
- 1597.00K
- 6178.00K
-
33.97M
81.95M
47.98M
46.52M
- 6044.00K
40.47M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NVEE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$145.33
$247.76
$265.27
$284.02
$304.09