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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dyn Ov (XNAS:QQQX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
QQQX
Name:
Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dyn Ov (XNAS:QQQX)
Sector:
-
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NUVEEN NASDAQ 100 DYN OV(QQQX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.36
One Month Price Target:
$25.43
Six Month Price Target :
$40.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.3
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.58
This week:
$20.62
This month :
$18.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.34%
-14.36%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.96
$24.32
$18.76
$20.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.79
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.44
$20.92
$21.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
QQQX
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.32%
Comparison:
QQQX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -139.85% lower than the industry
& is -114.06% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
QQQX
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.07%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -91.05% below industry average
Classification:
QQQX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.6
Statistical test of Returns:
QQQX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.69%
Weekly Volatility:
3.78%
Monthly Volatility:
7.57%
Yearly Volatility:
26.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.97%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -42.75% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.47%
Weekly VaR:
-7.76%
Monthly VaR:
-15.53%
How Much Can the price of
QQQX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-53.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.30
This translates to price declining to:
$10.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
QQQX is a 9.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -6.11% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
QQQX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--24.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
8.565
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
12.112
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.557
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.691
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.918
Beta is 2573.04% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is 1348.79% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.66%
Sustainable growth rate is -65.72% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-1.705
Alpha is 2959.03% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -10852% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
QQQX
Equity cost of capital:
1.713
Equity cost of capital is 1060.86% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.82
Annual revenue growth rate is -661.57% below industry average
EPS:
$4.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -111.73% lower than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
QQQX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
46.5
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $78.80
QQQX is -71.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $3.65
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.14
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
49.56
Price to sales ratio is 623.35% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.82
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-628.92%
Net income growth rate is -532.61% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 8.43%
Previous Dividend: $0.49
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.49
Previous Dividend: $1.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.53
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.46
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.49%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.49
2021-12-14--$0.45
2021-06-14--$0.45
2022-03-14--$0.49
2021-09-14--$0.45
2021-03-12--$0.45
Dividend growth rate is -54.90% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
3.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.03
Interest coverage ratio is -96.59% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.633
Statistical significance of correlation:
QQQX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is 9.88% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
13.856
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.941
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
QQQX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
98%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.58%
Operating profit margin is -54.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
98%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -48.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 118.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-425.1
Cash conversion cycle is -148.94% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
QQQX
STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SYBT)
PREMIER FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:PFC)
Calamos Conv & High Inc (XNAS:CHY)
JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNAS:JRVR)
STONEX GROUP INC. (XNAS:SNEX)
EBSB
1ST SOURCE CORPORATION (XNAS:SRCE)
GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GABC)
CONNECTONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CNOB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
12/31/19
Revenue:
20.30M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.22M
5.08M
-
180.00K
700.00K
-
-
700.00K
-
169.41M
-
343.19M
4.38M
173.78M
173.78M
-
173.78M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2021
FY
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158.13K
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1.36B
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1.36B
1.36B
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-
-
-
-
-
-
-
26.59M
26.59M
450.48K
989.62M
-
344.80M
-
15.92M
1.33B
1.36B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
QQQX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$59.54
$253.31
$671.16
$1,778.27
$4,711.62