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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nuvasive, Inc. (XNAS:NUVA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NUVA
Name:
NUVASIVE, INC. (XNAS:NUVA)
Sector:
- 26684.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. J. Christopher Barry
Total Employees:
2,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -11.16% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NUVASIVE, INC.(NUVA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
43.35
One Month Price Target:
$43.64
Six Month Price Target :
$45.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$46.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$43.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$40.55
This week:
$37.09
This month :
$30.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
52.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.69%
-16.49%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.35
$50.47
$30.35
$36.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.56
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.30
$38.13
$39.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NUVA
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.19%
Comparison:
NUVA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -178.71% lower than the industry
& is -152.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NUVA
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.14%
Monthly returns:
-0.57%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -144.48% below industry average
Classification:
NUVA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.5
Statistical test of Returns:
NUVA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.13%
Weekly Volatility:
7.00%
Monthly Volatility:
14.00%
Yearly Volatility:
48.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.46%
Weekly VaR:
-14.44%
Monthly VaR:
-28.88%
How Much Can the price of
NUVA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.14
This translates to price declining to:
$6.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NUVA is a 103.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 74.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NUVA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.751
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.063
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.433
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.906
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.933
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.039
Beta is 13.85% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 11.12% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.181
Alpha is -468.09% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1151% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NUVA
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is 7.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.37%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.37%
WACC is -14.31% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.20% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.71
-
-
Debt per share
$19.13
EBITDA per share
$2.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
NUVA
P/E Ratio:
1648.45
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
51.86
P/E ratio is 3078.85% higher than main peers & is 576.86% higher than the industry
-
NUVA is -122.53% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.95
Price to sales ratio is -79.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.78
Price to free cash flow: 60.99
Price to free cash flow ratio is -43.95% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-611.49%
Net income growth rate is -729.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
122.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
98.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
46.10%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 18.98% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.09
Interest coverage ratio is -39.32% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-34.26%
Annual debt growth is -114% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.581
Statistical significance of correlation:
NUVA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 24.23% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
7.366
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.241
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NUVA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
286%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.64%
Operating profit margin is -127.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
286%
Effective Tax Rate:
-41.51%
Effective tax rate is -175.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is -53.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is -48.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
3.19
Current ratio is -50.73% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
156.9
Cash conversion cycle is 181.26% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-18.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
399.5K
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
48.6K
Each employee generates 677% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 12.9K
Each employee generates -57% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 9.2K
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
471.8K
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 16.02%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -12315.22% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NUVA
PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTCT)
PACIRA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:PCRX)
RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RXRX)
Tinkoff Nasdaq Biotekh BPIFRFI (MISX:TBIO)
ATRICURE, INC. (XNAS:ATRC)
CHEMOCENTRYX, INC. (XNAS:CCXI)
IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:IOVA)
KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KYMR)
AXONICS, INC. (XNAS:AXNX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�29%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.16B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
329.56M
828.94M
93.76M
-
624.41M
-
57.00M
775.18M
116.00K
17.41M
149.89M
140.89M
53.76M
- 37375.00K
- 26412.00K
10.96M
- 37375.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
36.80M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3891.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.81M
Change in Working Capital :
- 37855.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 17216.00K
Other Working Capital:
218.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 14524.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.54M
Investments in PP&E:
- 33223.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
205.31M
-
205.31M
231.43M
324.40M
31.07M
792.21M
414.35M
636.70M
233.30M
-
61.29M
22.64M
1.37B
-
2.16B
115.67M
10.04M
1.11M
-
123.01M
248.73M
995.89M
91.16M
1.10B
-
1.35B
63.00K
64.91M
- 11741.0K
758.69M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.10B
811.92M
2.16B
-
1.01B
800.6M
-
- 947.00K
- 34170.00K
-
-
- 5345.00K
-
- 7360.00K
- 12705.00K
- 443.00K
- 40779.00K
206.81M
247.59M
6.54M
- 33223.00K
- 26684.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NUVA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.95
$50.68
$54.71
$59.06
$63.76