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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nutanix, Inc. (XNAS:NTNX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NTNX
Name:
NUTANIX, INC. (XNAS:NTNX)
Sector:
- 1905.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Dr. Dheeraj Pandey
Total Employees:
6,080
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 15.15% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NUTANIX, INC.(NTNX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.75
One Month Price Target:
$21.91
Six Month Price Target :
$22.73
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.97
This week:
$17.76
This month :
$13.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
224.29M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.17%
-28.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.04
$26.26
$13.46
$17.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.22
$18.46
$19.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NTNX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.39%
Comparison:
NTNX, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -75.85% lower than the industry
& is -82.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NTNX
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.49%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -58.83% below industry average
Classification:
NTNX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
NTNX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.01%
Weekly Volatility:
8.96%
Monthly Volatility:
17.92%
Yearly Volatility:
62.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
15.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 293.31% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.21%
Weekly VaR:
-18.35%
Monthly VaR:
-36.70%
How Much Can the price of
NTNX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.75
This translates to price declining to:
$3.26
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NTNX is a 159.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 121.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 20.28% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NTNX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.855
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.21
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-1.425
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.306
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.832
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.515
Beta is -11.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 20.54% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
147.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -59.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.064
Alpha is -277.12% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -408% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NTNX
Equity cost of capital:
0.123
Equity cost of capital is 14.53% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-13.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.12%
WACC is -19.42% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-6.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -105.62% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -61.95% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.97
EBITDA per share
-$3.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
NTNX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
862.93
-
-
NTNX is -107.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.16
Price to sales ratio is -62.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-6.98
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
176.60%
Net income growth rate is -97.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-191.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-147.63%
Debt to assets ratio:
59.41%
Net debt to assets ratio:
45.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-22.7
Interest coverage ratio is -89.24% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
32.95%
Annual debt growth is -69% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.546
Statistical significance of correlation:
NTNX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 13.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.019
Kurtosis
13.854
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.352
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NTNX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
239%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-39.72%
Operating profit margin is 234.69% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
239%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.25%
Effective tax rate is -103.99% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
127.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is 19.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-39.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is 942.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.5x
Current Ratio:
1.72
Current ratio is -26.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-20.5
Cash conversion cycle is -118.17% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-10.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
192.9K
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 138.8K
Each employee generates -312% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 146.3K
Each employee generates -799% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.3K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
115.5K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 0.54%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -120.69% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NTNX
SUNRUN INC. (XNAS:RUN)
COHERENT, INC. (XNAS:COHR)
HANCOCK WHITNEY CORPORATION (XNAS:HWCPZ)
JCOM
The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (XNAS:DSGX)
CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD. (XNAS:CYBR)
ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC (XNAS:ALGM)
FRESHWORKS INC. (XNAS:FRSH)
Braze, Inc. (XNAS:BRZE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�29%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.17B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
239.81M
1.27B
427.00M
166.51M
877.57M
755.35M
427.53M
1.73B
1.20M
37.18M
90.89M
- 843885.00K
- 465912.00K
- 889669.00K
- 987079.00K
12.34M
- 889669.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
23.29M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
90.55M
Change in Working Capital :
23.14M
Accounts Receivables:
64.74M
Other Working Capital:
- 39005.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
289.81M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.94M
Investments in PP&E:
- 8844.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 290050.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/31/21
2022
Q1
350.99M
925.12M
1.28B
124.63M
-
151.67M
1.55B
221.26M
185.26M
27.89M
-
-
267.77M
702.17M
-
2.25B
43.18M
43.22M
32.11M
662.50M
155.88M
904.79M
1.34B
38.35M
2.05B
-
2.95B
5.00K
- 3990340.00K
- 659.0K
3.29B
October 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
2.05B
- 698739.00K
2.25B
-
1.38B
1.0B
290.02M
-
- 8871.00K
- 219.00K
-
- 58570.00K
-
126.05M
67.26M
-
62.11M
350.99M
288.87M
6.94M
- 8844.00K
- 1905.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NTNX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.78
$25.93
$28.26
$30.81
$33.58