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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nucor Corporation (XNYS:NUE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NUE
Name:
NUCOR CORPORATION (XNYS:NUE)
Sector:
2.02B
Industry:
Steel
CEO:
Mr. Leon Topalian
Total Employees:
28,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -0.23% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NUCOR CORPORATION(NUE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STEEL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
130.78
One Month Price Target:
$131.81
Six Month Price Target :
$136.96
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$143.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$130.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$131.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$123.26
This week:
$113.97
This month :
$97.16
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
35.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
261.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.81%
-14.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$165.62
$149.31
$95.94
$112.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$144.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$140.52
$117.52
$121.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NUE
Sharpe Ratio:
5.24%
Comparison:
NUE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 38.50% higher than the industry
& ratio is 129.89% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NUE
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.80%
Monthly returns:
3.19%
Yearly returns:
34.75%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 10.24% above industry average
Classification:
NUE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.11
Statistical test of Returns:
NUE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.88%
Weekly Volatility:
6.43%
Monthly Volatility:
12.87%
Yearly Volatility:
44.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -50.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.75%
Weekly VaR:
-12.86%
Monthly VaR:
-25.71%
How Much Can the price of
NUE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-89.06%
This translates to price declining to:
$103.45
This translates to price declining to:
$14.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NUE is a 81.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 55.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NUE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.41
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.836
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.183
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.072
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.805
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.804
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.961
Beta is 46.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.33
Beta is 5.69% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
49.64%
Sustainable growth rate is 3.93% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.255
Alpha is 13.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1625% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NUE
Equity cost of capital:
0.128
Equity cost of capital is 4.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.75%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.43%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.92%
WACC is 5.68% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$152.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -43.91% below industry average
EPS:
$28.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
77.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 30.41% higher than the Steel industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$23.35
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.30%
Equity growth rate per share is -146.58% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$23.35
EBITDA per share
$43.87
Valuation Analysis Today of
NUE
P/E Ratio:
4
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
34.59
P/E ratio is -88.44% lower than main peers & is -7.64% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $121.27
NUE is 7.84% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $60.36
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.82
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.86
Price to sales ratio is 41.15% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.12
Price to free cash flow: 5.60
Price to free cash flow ratio is -38.28% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
214.44%
Net income growth rate is 50.21% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.72%
Dividend yeild: 1.46%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $1.91
Expected next dividend best case: $0.54
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.46
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.41%
Expected next dividend payment date: 11/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.50
2021-12-30--$0.50
2021-06-29--$0.41
2022-03-30--$0.50
2021-09-29--$0.41
2021-03-30--$0.41
Dividend growth rate is -107.99% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
40.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
20.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -56.83% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
69.28
Interest coverage ratio is 103.45% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
8.28%
Annual debt growth is 1186% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.627
Statistical significance of correlation:
NUE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is 19.97% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.06
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.1
Kurtosis
2.821
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.162
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NUE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.33%
Operating profit margin is 86.11% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.58%
Effective tax rate is 22.80% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
52.49%
Return on equity (ROE) is 5.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
27.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is 43.91% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.88
Current ratio is 9.56% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.5
Cash conversion cycle is -17.77% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.33%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates -86% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
398.8K
Each employee generates -86% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
277.1K
Each employee generates -87% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
70.3K
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
481.0K
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NUE
LyondellBasell Industries NV (XNYS:LYB)
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:GOLD)
MT
INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC. (XNYS:IFF)
ALBEMARLE CORPORATION (XNYS:ALB)
VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY (XNYS:VMC)
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS, INC. (XNYS:MLM)
Nutrien Ltd. (XNYS:NTR)
PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:PPG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
39.96B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
27.10B
12.86B
-
-
1.94B
-
-
1.94B
3.45M
165.79M
900.50M
11.49B
10.92B
7.98B
10.80B
2.44B
7.98B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
236.89M
Differed Income Tax :
- 18764.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
26.42M
Change in Working Capital :
6.70M
Accounts Receivables:
- 92394.00K
Other Working Capital:
798.64M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 6195.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.47B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 347240.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 274197.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
3.73B
446.87M
4.17B
4.11B
6.25B
252.06M
14.78B
8.92B
2.90B
1.06B
-
-
962.91M
13.85B
-
28.63B
1.90B
716.06M
602.54M
-
2.52B
5.13B
6.11B
1.24B
7.36B
-
12.49B
152.06M
19.64B
- 44504.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
29.04B
15.20B
27.69B
-
6.83B
3.1B
80.33M
- 440577.00K
- 981681.00K
- 2500.00K
-
- 905324.00K
- 137587.00K
856.10M
- 189309.00K
3.67M
1.30B
3.81B
2.51B
2.47B
- 447682.00K
2.02B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NUE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$143.85
$623.08
$681.94
$746.35
$816.85