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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Novavax, Inc. (XNAS:NVAX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NVAX
Name:
NOVAVAX, INC. (XNAS:NVAX)
Sector:
- 105336.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Stanley Erck
Total Employees:
1,541
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -39.58% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NOVAVAX, INC.(NVAX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.39
One Month Price Target:
$30.67
Six Month Price Target :
$32.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.04
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.07
This week:
$18.5
This month :
$6.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
78.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
71.08%
-29.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.01
$43.37
$5.77
$17.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.10
$21.16
$23.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NVAX
Sharpe Ratio:
7.19%
Comparison:
NVAX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 269.64% higher than the industry
& ratio is 215.34% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NVAX
Daily returns:
0.64%
Weekly returns:
3.22%
Monthly returns:
12.87%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 512.46% above industry average
Classification:
NVAX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
NVAX has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
8.83%
Weekly Volatility:
19.75%
Monthly Volatility:
39.50%
Yearly Volatility:
136.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-17.50%
Weekly VaR:
-39.12%
Monthly VaR:
-78.25%
How Much Can the price of
NVAX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-62%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.61
This translates to price declining to:
$4.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NVAX is a 452.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 373.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 85.78% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NVAX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.17
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.654
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.292
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.259
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.841
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.878
Beta is 88.69% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 43.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.400
Alpha is 886.94% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 8911% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NVAX
Equity cost of capital:
0.145
Equity cost of capital is 31.28% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.72%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.73%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.73%
WACC is 41.36% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
36.39
Annual revenue growth rate is 27.58% above the industry average
EPS:
-$17.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
62.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 521.58% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
-$15.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
NVAX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
148.51
-
-
NVAX is -101.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.82
Price to sales ratio is -95.50% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
36.39
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -65.16% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
134.54%
Net income growth rate is 90.61% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
456.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1730.54%
Debt to assets ratio:
82.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-39.88%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 94.56% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-60.11
Interest coverage ratio is -49.20% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.51%
Annual debt growth is -122% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.183
Statistical significance of correlation:
NVAX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -46.21% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.125
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.641
Kurtosis
14.182
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.059
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NVAX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
97%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-97.31%
Operating profit margin is -77.30% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
97%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.24%
Effective tax rate is -139.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2017.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3418.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-46.48%
Return on assets (ROA) is 127.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
5.6x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -87.17% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.50%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
846.0K
Each employee generates -47% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 811.7K
Each employee generates -311% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 855.0K
Each employee generates -768% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 68.4K
Each employee generates -146% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
316.3K
Each employee generates -146% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 239.28%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -6769.51% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NVAX
SYNEOS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:SYNH)
UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION (XNAS:UTHR)
GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)
Grifols SA (XNAS:GRFS)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:JAZZ)
XLRN
HENRY SCHEIN, INC. (XNAS:HSIC)
BRUKER CORPORATION (XNAS:BRKR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.30B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.20M
589.47M
2.33B
235.17M
331.16M
-
- 99301.00K
2.56B
-
20.81M
17.11M
- 1250847.00K
- 1268652.00K
- 1317624.00K
- 1288764.00K
28.86M
- 1317624.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.77M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
32.93M
Change in Working Capital :
- 332464.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 56016.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 61391.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
848.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 88510.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.57B
-
1.57B
478.16M
106.65M
191.65M
2.35B
333.57M
130.76M
4.54M
-
-
18.61M
487.47M
-
2.83B
135.13M
440.50M
-
1.09B
591.15M
2.26B
-
66.80M
508.55M
-
2.77B
787.00K
- 3414542.00K
- 1312.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.57B
65.32M
2.83B
-
440.50M
- 1130456.0K
-
- 16826.00K
- 16826.00K
- 20838.00K
179.39M
-
-
1.32M
159.87M
1.31M
55.84M
1.58B
1.53B
- 88510.00K
- 16826.00K
- 105336.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NVAX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.88
$37.65
$41.83
$46.49
$51.66