_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (XNYS:NCLH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NCLH
Name:
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. (XNYS:NCLH)
Sector:
- 536295.00K
Industry:
Travel Services
CEO:
Mr. Frank Del Rio
Total Employees:
34,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1745.66% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD.(NCLH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRAVEL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.05
One Month Price Target:
$13.23
Six Month Price Target :
$14.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.16
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$12.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.45
This week:
$9.46
This month :
$5.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.61B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
421.39M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
42.19%
-35.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.50
$17.12
$5.60
$8.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.30
$10.07
$10.80
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NCLH
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.66%
Comparison:
NCLH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -345.28% lower than the industry
& is -128.84% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NCLH
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.15%
Monthly returns:
-0.61%
Yearly returns:
3.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -317.92% below industry average
Classification:
NCLH, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
NCLH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.97%
Weekly Volatility:
13.35%
Monthly Volatility:
26.70%
Yearly Volatility:
92.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.95% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.29%
Weekly VaR:
-27.49%
Monthly VaR:
-54.98%
How Much Can the price of
NCLH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-49%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.66
This translates to price declining to:
$1.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NCLH is a 288.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 232.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NCLH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.254
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.773
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.257
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.56
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.42
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.463
Beta is 64.16% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.849
Beta is 29.84% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.269
Alpha is 115.70% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1712% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NCLH
Equity cost of capital:
0.196
Equity cost of capital is 23.90% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.17%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.17%
WACC is 42.98% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.65
Annual revenue growth rate is 301.65% above the industry average
EPS:
-$10.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$29.81
EBITDA per share
-$4.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
NCLH
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.75
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
NCLH is -100.25% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.71
Price to sales ratio is -46.40% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.65
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-388.00%
Net income growth rate is -391.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
833.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
758.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
65.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
59.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.12
Interest coverage ratio is -60.09% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.42%
Annual debt growth is -35% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.93%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.545
Statistical significance of correlation:
NCLH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.558
Stock price is -2.33% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.558
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.064
Kurtosis
8.468
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.24
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NCLH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-5893%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-228.81%
Operating profit margin is -36.51% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-5893%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.19%
Effective tax rate is -100.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-273.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is 342.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-21.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 85.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.9x
Current Ratio:
0.77
Current ratio is -51.85% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
611.3
Cash conversion cycle is 599.52% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
33.6K
Each employee generates -88% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 50.9K
Each employee generates 508% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 118.7K
Each employee generates 72% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 15.5K
Each employee generates -177% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
462.3K
Each employee generates -177% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NCLH
AUTOLIV, INC. (XNYS:ALV)
DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION (XNYS:DECK)
Capri Holdings Limited (XNYS:CPRI)
LEVI STRAUSS & CO. (XNYS:LEVI)
LITHIA MOTORS, INC. (XNYS:LAD)
DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. (XNYS:DKS)
QUANTUMSCAPE CORPORATION (XNYS:QS)
SEALED AIR CORPORATION (XNYS:SEE)
UNDER ARMOUR, INC. (XNYS:UAA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�42%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.17B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.14B
- 975769.00K
-
-
984.46M
-
709.61M
1.69B
-
1.58B
770.26M
- 1764748.00K
- 2669838.00K
- 4119109.00K
- 4111177.00K
7.93M
- 4119109.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
195.46M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
32.79M
Change in Working Capital :
217.63M
Accounts Receivables:
618.85M
Other Working Capital:
417.88M
Other Non-Cash Items:
165.82M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 371011.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 165284.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.14B
-
2.14B
544.96M
141.96M
390.75M
3.21B
13.53B
98.13M
500.53M
-
-
1.91B
16.04B
-
19.26B
91.79M
1.01B
-
1.98B
1.10B
4.18B
12.56B
1.01B
13.57B
-
17.75B
419.00K
- 5779120.00K
- 250808.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.84B
1.51B
19.26B
-
13.57B
11.4B
240.00M
4.94M
79.66M
- 935444.00K
-
-
-
1.86B
921.55M
-
630.19M
2.14B
1.51B
- 371011.00K
- 165284.00K
- 536295.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NCLH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.21
$17.66
$20.51
$23.82
$27.66