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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:NWBI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NWBI
Name:
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:NWBI)
Sector:
- 22457.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Ronald Seiffert
Total Employees:
2,251
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 552.60% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC.(NWBI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.94
One Month Price Target:
$13.98
Six Month Price Target :
$14.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.31
This week:
$12.53
This month :
$11.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.74B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
126.88M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.2%
-10.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.87
$15.54
$11.01
$12.34
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.10
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.82
$12.77
$13.06
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NWBI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.40%
Comparison:
NWBI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -132.68% lower than the industry
& is -117.61% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NWBI
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
0.00%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -99.98% below industry average
Classification:
NWBI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
NWBI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.20%
Weekly Volatility:
4.92%
Monthly Volatility:
9.85%
Yearly Volatility:
34.11%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.52%
Weekly VaR:
-10.11%
Monthly VaR:
-20.22%
How Much Can the price of
NWBI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-70.06%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.45
This translates to price declining to:
$4.17
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NWBI is a 42.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.92% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NWBI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.521
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.736
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.457
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.463
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.689
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.061
Beta is -48.86% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -43.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.46%
Sustainable growth rate is -62.12% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.069
Alpha is -691.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -437% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NWBI
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -29.56% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.81%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.38%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.38%
WACC is -40.56% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -111.83% below industry average
EPS:
$1.12
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.13%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -57.34% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 16.89%
Equity growth rate per share is -56.38% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.95
EBITDA per share
$1.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
NWBI
P/E Ratio:
13.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.02
P/E ratio is 15.85% higher than main peers & is 12.22% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $13.90
NWBI is 0.30% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.48
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.97
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.6
Price to sales ratio is -15.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
Price to free cash flow: 18.24
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.24%
Net income growth rate is -65.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 17.79%
Dividend yeild: 5.74%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$0.20
2021-11-04--$0.20
2021-05-05--$0.20
2022-02-02--$0.20
2021-08-04--$0.20
2021-02-03--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -95.42% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-51.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.46%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.44% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.41
Interest coverage ratio is 914.86% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.88%
Annual debt growth is -1642% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.559
Statistical significance of correlation:
NWBI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 11.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.053
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.068
Kurtosis
5.498
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.166
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NWBI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
23.12%
Effective tax rate is 7.29% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is -21.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -57.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.49%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
218.1K
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
95.2K
Each employee generates -58% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
63.2K
Each employee generates -55% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.0K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.2M
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NWBI
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (XNAS:GCMG)
INSTIL BIO, INC. (XNAS:TIL)
Pathward Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CASH)
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
HOPE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HOPE)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SYBT)
LENDINGTREE, INC. (XNAS:TREE)
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
490.94M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
212.35M
220.73M
8.39M
-
-
406.54M
25.49M
3.71M
214.39M
-
142.37M
185.18M
42.81M
142.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.60M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
699.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 62291.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.25M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 22457.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 61640.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.16B
1.44B
2.60B
26.27M
-
-
-
149.97M
381.00M
11.65M
2.18B
-
-
2.72B
17.13B
14.41B
563.00K
-
-
-
-
-
374.23M
-
374.23M
13.26B
12.89B
1.27M
612.48M
- 102544.0K
1.01B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.52B
14.41B
3.62B
374.23M
- 786781.0K
113.39M
- 124431.00K
- 72684.00K
- 17657.00K
-
-
- 25335.00K
19.88M
- 23112.00K
-
- 118253.00K
1.16B
1.28B
- 22457.00K
-
- 22457.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NWBI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.67
$17.28
$17.91
$18.56
$19.24