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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:NFBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NFBK
Name:
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)
Sector:
19.23M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Steven Klein
Total Employees:
379
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 48.05% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC.(NFBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.75
One Month Price Target:
$14.81
Six Month Price Target :
$15.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.42
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.
This week:
$13.07
This month :
$11.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
701.45M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.41M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.02%
-16.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.23
$16.65
$11.27
$12.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.79
$13.37
$13.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NFBK
Sharpe Ratio:
0.13%
Comparison:
NFBK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -89.67% lower than the industry
& is -94.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NFBK
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.24%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -73.61% below industry average
Classification:
NFBK, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
NFBK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.48%
Weekly Volatility:
5.55%
Monthly Volatility:
11.10%
Yearly Volatility:
38.46%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.58%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.09%
Weekly VaR:
-11.37%
Monthly VaR:
-22.75%
How Much Can the price of
NFBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.80%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.80
This translates to price declining to:
$3.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NFBK is a 60.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.10% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NFBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.607
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.858
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.486
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.475
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.73
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.85
Beta is -20.38% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -29.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -33.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.049
Alpha is -522.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -312% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NFBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -20.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.08%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.08%
WACC is -35.11% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.43
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1
Annual revenue growth rate is 25.89% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.02%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 58.21% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.31
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.32%
Equity growth rate per share is -34.60% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.98
EBITDA per share
$2.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
NFBK
P/E Ratio:
11.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.65
P/E ratio is -23.15% lower than main peers & is -9.28% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $17.00
NFBK is -13.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.68
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.88
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.3
Price to sales ratio is 0.66% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1
Price to free cash flow: 11.29
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
69.78%
Net income growth rate is 26.70% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.23%
Dividend yeild: 3.53%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.14
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.82%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.13
2021-11-09--$0.13
2021-05-11--$0.13
2022-02-08--$0.13
2021-08-10--$0.13
2021-02-09--$0.11
Dividend growth rate is -92.27% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
54.02%
Net debt to equity ratio:
35.08%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.01%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.6
Interest coverage ratio is 816.48% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-26.44%
Annual debt growth is -8448% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.491
Statistical significance of correlation:
NFBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -1.86% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.046
Kurtosis
10.159
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.177
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NFBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.94%
Operating profit margin is -63.86% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.34%
Effective tax rate is 26.87% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is -48.00% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.76
Current ratio is -95.40% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
437.7K
Each employee generates 15% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
302.3K
Each employee generates 34% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
174.4K
Each employee generates 23% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
50.7K
Each employee generates -39% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates -39% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NFBK
Univest Financial Corporation (XNAS:UVSP)
NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NWLI)
THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FBMS)
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ABTX)
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH)
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:WRLD)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
165.87M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
42.64M
-
50.86M
53.19M
2.33M
- 13730.00K
1.03M
166.27M
15.08M
8.51M
114.57M
-
66.10M
90.97M
24.87M
66.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.13M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
847.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 718.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 19.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.21M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
19.60M
Investments in PP&E:
- 365.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 141523.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
135.51M
1.15B
1.29B
14.59M
-
-
-
58.17M
41.01M
-
1.18B
-
-
1.28B
6.80B
5.52B
-
-
-
-
-
-
386.49M
-
386.49M
5.19B
4.80B
648.00K
389.39M
- 23289.0K
348.65M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
715.40M
5.52B
2.33B
386.49M
251.0M
155.27M
- 89202.00K
- 75822.00K
-
-
- 8237.00K
- 6101.00K
115.01M
100.67M
-
44.45M
135.51M
91.07M
19.60M
- 365.00K
19.23M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NFBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.50
$21.12
$22.08
$23.08
$24.13